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Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München meet at the semi-final stage of the DFB Pokal on Wednesday evening, 22 April 2026, with a place in the final on the line and very little room for caution. It’s the sort of tie that carries its own pressure. One club is trying to turn a strong cup run into silverware, the other is chasing another chance to add to the cabinet under Vincent Kompany.
There’s no league table to lean on here, only the knockout reality of the cup. Win and you’re a game away from the trophy. Lose and the season’s route to Berlin ends abruptly. Leverkusen, managed by Kasper Hjulmand, come in with the sharper need to respond after a bruising home defeat to FC Augsburg. Bayern, meanwhile, arrive on the back of six straight wins and with the confidence of a side that’s still rolling through everything in front of them.
Leverkusen’s recent story has been uneven, and the details matter. They opened this run with a chaotic 1-1 draw against Bayern Munich on 14 March, a game in which they at least stood up to one of Europe’s heavyweights. Then came a frustrating 3-3 draw away to 1. FC Heidenheim, the kind of match that leaves you wondering how a side can score three and still not win. The response was excellent, though. A 6-3 home win over VfL Wolfsburg showed the best of them: aggressive, fast, and ruthless when the game opened up.
That momentum didn’t quite hold. Leverkusen were beaten 2-0 by Arsenal in the Champions League knockout stage, a result that knocked some shine off the period, even if the European test was a stiff one. They bounced back with a disciplined 1-0 win away at Borussia Dortmund, which told you they can still tighten up when the occasion demands it. But the latest result, a 2-1 home loss to FC Augsburg, was a setback they won’t love. Worse, it came after they’d looked capable of more from the match. The late penalty from Fabian Rieder wasn’t enough to rescue it.
The underlying figures from that Augsburg game were strong enough to make the defeat sting even more. Leverkusen put up 2.93 xG, racked up 33 shots and forced nine on target. They had territory, pressure and moments. Augsburg just made their chances count. That’s the concern for Hjulmand’s side: they’re still producing enough in front of goal, but they’re not always controlling games the way a home side should. On their own ground, the mix has been all over the place. They’ve got the firepower to hurt anyone, but they’ve also shown they can be made to look vulnerable when the game becomes stretched.
There’s a clear pattern here. Leverkusen can score, and they usually do. They’ve also been involved in open games far too often, which is fine when you’re chasing a match, less so when Bayern are the opponents. You’d expect them to have spells. The question is whether they can keep Bayern out long enough to make those spells count.
Bayern are arriving in a far more polished mood. Their last six matches have all ended in wins, and that alone changes the mood around a cup semi-final. They started with a 4-0 home win over Union Berlin, then went to Freiburg and came away with a 3-2 victory, which had a bit more edge to it. After that came a 2-1 win at Real Madrid in the Champions League knockout stage. That’s no throwaway result. Winning at the Bernabéu is a statement, full stop.
The run hasn’t just been about surviving difficult nights. Bayern followed that by hammering FC St. Pauli 5-0 away from home, then beating Real Madrid 4-3 at home in another wild European game. Their most recent outing was a 4-2 home win over VfB Stuttgart, and once again they were dangerous from start to finish. That’s six wins in six, and 17 matches unbeaten overall. That sort of momentum matters in a knockout tie. It really does.
The numbers from the Stuttgart game are the sort of thing that make opponents nervous. Bayern generated 4.33 xG, fired 28 shots and created eight big chances. They were lively, direct and relentless. They also conceded enough to keep Stuttgart in the game longer than they’d have liked, and that’s the one thread Leverkusen will be hoping to tug at. Bayern aren’t spotless at the back. They don’t need to be. Their attack is carrying so much weight that they’re often happy to win games in a shootout.
Away from home, Bayern have been especially dangerous. The 5-0 win at St. Pauli and the 3-2 at Freiburg are a pretty clear reminder that they’re not reliant on home comfort. They travel with intent. The flip side? They do leave openings. Even in victory, they’ve been conceding enough to keep BTTS in play in plenty of matches. Still, when you’re scoring this freely and carrying this level of confidence, you can live with a bit of risk.
This fixture has become one Bayern know well, and that’s been reflected in recent meetings. The sides drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga on 14 March 2026, which was a decent result for Leverkusen on paper, but it didn’t shift the broader pattern. Bayern had already beaten Leverkusen 3-0 at home on 1 November 2025, and they also swept them aside twice in the Champions League knockouts in March 2025, winning 3-0 in Munich and 2-0 in Leverkusen. That’s four Bayern wins in the last seven meetings listed here, with Leverkusen only breaking through once, in the DFB Pokal quarter-final back on 3 December 2024, when they won 1-0 in Munich.
One useful angle stands out: Bayern are unbeaten in five straight against Leverkusen. That won’t worry them, and it should worry the home side. Leverkusen have also gone without a clean sheet in four of those recent meetings, which fits the feel of the matchup. Bayern tend to find a way through. They usually do.
We’re backing FC Bayern München to win at 8/15 here. It’s short enough for a reason. Bayern are on a six-match winning run, unbeaten in 17, and they’re coming into this after putting four past Stuttgart and four past Real Madrid at home. That kind of attacking rhythm is hard to ignore. Leverkusen have quality, no doubt, but they’ve just been beaten at home by Augsburg and they’ve been too open in games that turn chaotic. Against Bayern, that’s asking for trouble.
A 1-2 scoreline looks the right call. Leverkusen should get chances — they always seem to — but Bayern’s front line has been a level above almost everyone lately, and their away form is strong enough to make the difference. If you want a slightly safer angle, Bayern to qualify would be the natural alternative, but for the match result itself, away win is the clear pick.
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