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CSKA Sofia and Levski Sofia meet again at the Vasil Levski National Stadium on Saturday afternoon in the First Professional League Championship Round, and this one carries proper weight. Levski arrive as league leaders, five points clear at the top, while CSKA sit fourth and still need every point they can gather to keep pressure on the sides above them. Derby matches always carry their own heat, but this one has a very practical edge too. Levski want to keep their title push alive. CSKA want to prove they can still land a blow on the team sitting above everyone else.
The backdrop is familiar enough: the two Sofia giants drew 1-1 in the reverse league meeting on 13 April, a game that stayed tight for long spells before Juan Perea and Leandro Godoy traded late goals. That came after CSKA had edged Levski 1-0 in November and after a run of recent derby meetings that has generally stayed close. This isn’t one of those fixtures where one side strolls in with a huge psychological advantage. It rarely is. But there’s enough form on both sides to expect a cagey contest with chances at both ends.
CSKA do at least arrive with momentum. Hristo Yanev’s side have gone five matches unbeaten, and their most recent outing was a huge one, a 2-1 away win at Ludogorets in the Bulgarian Cup on 21 April. That sort of result changes the mood in a dressing room. Levski, though, have been even harder to beat for longer and remain the division’s pace-setters. Julio Velazquez has his team on a six-match unbeaten run in the league and they’ve been extremely efficient away from home too. You’d expect a tense, tactical derby. Anything else would be a surprise.
CSKA’s recent story has been one of recovery and resilience. After the heavy 3-0 loss at Ludogorets back on 14 March, they responded well. A 2-0 home win over FK Dobrudzha Dobrich steadied things, then they went to Beroe Stara Zagora and came away with a sharp 3-0 victory, which told you their attacking play had found a better rhythm. The 1-0 success at PFK Montana 1921 was the sort of result that seasoned title-chasers grind out without fuss, and then came the 1-1 derby draw with Levski on 13 April. That was followed by the Cup win at Ludogorets, where they recovered from a poor start, stayed in the game and finished it with late goals from Ioannis Pittas and Leandro Godoy. That’s a decent body of work. No sugar-coating needed.
At home, CSKA have been very strong all season. They’ve taken 34 points from 15 league games at their ground, with 10 wins, four draws and just one defeat, and the defensive numbers jump off the page: only nine goals conceded at home. That’s a proper platform. They’ve also scored 26 in those matches, so this isn’t some narrow, low-output team clinging on by their fingernails. At their best, CSKA are controlled, aggressive in the right moments and difficult to break down. That home record is one of the best reasons to expect a competitive derby rather than a comfortable away win.
Still, there are some limits. CSKA’s overall goal return of 43 in 30 league games is solid rather than spectacular, and that matches the feel of them. They can choke space and frustrate opponents, but they don’t always tear teams apart. Against a Levski side with the best away record in the division, that matters. If CSKA are going to win this, they probably need to keep it tight and take their moments. A shootout doesn’t suit them nearly as much as a measured, one-goal game. That’s the honest read.
Levski have been relentless without always being flashy. Their last six league matches have produced four wins and two draws, and the pattern is clear enough: they don’t give much away, they keep pushing, and they usually find a way. The 1-0 home win over Arda Kardzhali on 9 April was neat and tidy. Before that, they had the slightly messy 2-2 draw away to FK Dobrudzha Dobrich, where they at least showed they can fight back when the match slips out of their control. Then came wins over Cherno More Varna, Beroe Stara Zagora and Lokomotiv Plovdiv, all of them tight, all of them useful. The recent 1-1 draw at CSKA was hardly a setback either. In a derby away from home, they took something and probably could’ve taken more.
Their away record underlines why they’re top of the table. Nine wins, three draws and three defeats from 15 league trips is elite stuff. They’ve scored 26 away goals and conceded 13, which tells you they’re doing the business at both ends. This isn’t a side that treats away matches as damage limitation. They go after them. That’s reflected in their league position as well: 70 points, 64 goals scored overall, and just 22 conceded. Those are title-winning numbers, plain and simple.
Mind you, the recent away figures also hint at a side that tends to win without running riot. Levski don’t need 20 shots to get the job done. They’re efficient. They’ve found the first goal regularly, and once they’re ahead, they’re awkward to play against. That said, the draw at CSKA last time out was a reminder that derby away days aren’t clean and simple. The chance volume wasn’t huge in that game — Levski had the edge in xG, 1.35 to 0.24, but the match still finished level. Their best route here is probably the same again: keep the shape, stay patient, and trust that they can nick moments. They’ve done it often enough.
The recent derby record is tight, but not in a way that suggests chaos every time these clubs meet. The last eight meetings have been split fairly evenly, with CSKA winning some, Levski winning some, and a couple ending level. The most recent was that 1-1 draw on 13 April 2026, while CSKA won 1-0 in the reverse fixture in November 2025. Before that, there were low-margin battles like CSKA’s 3-1 win in April 2024 and the 2-2 draw in March 2025. It’s been competitive for years.
One pattern stands out more than any other: goals have often been at a premium. Eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings have gone under 2.5 goals. That’s a big clue. These teams know each other too well, and derby pressure tends to tighten the screws. It wouldn’t be a shock if this one followed the same script.
We’re backing Over 1.5 Goals at 2/5 here, and that looks the safest angle in a derby that should still deliver a couple of moments. The price is short, but it fits the shape of the match. CSKA have scored in enough recent games to trust them at home, Levski have found the net in six straight league matches, and the reverse fixture ended 1-1 only 11 days ago. Throw in the fact that both sides are in decent attacking nick and there’s enough there for two goals without needing the game to open up completely.
The projected scoreline is 1-1, which sits comfortably beside the total. Levski’s away control and CSKA’s home resistance point toward a close contest, and neither side looks likely to run away with it. If you want a slightly bolder angle, Both Teams to Score deserves a look as well, especially after the recent derby draw and Levski’s habit of finding the first goal. Still, Over 1.5 Goals is the cleaner play. This one should clear the line.
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