Levski Sofia host CSKA Sofia at the peak of the Bulgarian season on Saturday afternoon, with the capital derby landing in the Championship Round of the First Professional League. It’s a game that matters far beyond bragging rights. Levski are top of the table with 77 points and a clear grip on first place, while CSKA sit third on 63 and are trying to protect their own position in the race behind them. One side is trying to hold on to a title-sized lead. The other is trying to make sure the season ends with a proper finish.
There’s plenty of recent history between these two as well. They met on 25 April, when Levski went into CSKA’s ground and won 3-1, and they also shared a 1-1 draw there earlier in April. Both clubs have spent the spring tangled up with Ludogorets and FC CSKA 1948 Sofia in the championship group, so this derby arrives with both teams battle-tested. That won’t guarantee quality. It usually guarantees edge.
Levski come in knowing the table gives them room, but not comfort. They’re still the best side in Bulgaria this season, yet the last week has shown they’re not sailing through the run-in untouched. A 1-0 home loss to Ludogorets on 9 May was a dent, and the draw away to Ludogorets on 13 May was a steadier response, with Juan Perea and Deroy Duarte on target in a 1-1 game that kept them moving. Before that, they beat FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-0 at home, and the derby win at CSKA’s place on 25 April felt like one of those results that can define a title push. Stretch it back a little further and the picture is still strong: a 1-1 derby draw on 13 April, then a 1-0 home win over Arda Kardzhali. They’re not rolling teams over every week. But they’re controlling the important moments.
Levski Sofia Form & Analysis
At home, Levski have been excellent all season. Their record at their own ground reads 14 wins, one draw and only two defeats, with 39 goals scored and just 10 conceded. That’s not just good. That’s the sort of home record that wins leagues. They’ve been awkward to break down in Sofia, and they rarely give opponents a long spell of control. Even when the attack isn’t flying, the structure usually holds.
The one small concern is that recent home games haven’t been free-scoring. Ludogorets left with a 1-0 win, and FC CSKA 1948 Sofia were beaten by a single goal. Before that, Arda Kardzhali were edged out 1-0. That fits a broader pattern: Levski have been very reliable, but often in tight matches rather than open ones. They’ve gone two games without a win at the wrong end of this mini-run, though the draw in Razgrad was the kind of result that keeps momentum alive. They’re still hard to play against. Still hard to rattle.
What stands out most is the balance. Levski have 69 league goals overall and only 25 conceded, which is the profile of a side with title-winning habits. They don’t need chaos. They prefer control, and at home they’ve usually got it. You wouldn’t expect them to be caught in a wild shootout here. Their recent derby trends point the same way. These matches tend to stay tight, and Levski’s home numbers suggest they’ll want this one on their terms from the first whistle.
CSKA Sofia Form & Analysis
CSKA’s recent run has been steadier than flashy. They were held 1-1 at home by FC CSKA 1948 Sofia on 13 May, but that came after a 1-0 win away at the same opposition and a 1-0 home success over Ludogorets. Throw in the goalless draw with Ludogorets in the Bulgarian Cup and the 1-2 cup win away at Ludogorets before that, and you can see the shape of the season’s finish: compact, competitive, not easy to beat. The one real blemish in that sequence remains the 3-1 derby loss to Levski on 25 April. That one still hangs around. Derby defeats always do.
Away from home, CSKA’s league record is solid rather than spectacular: seven wins, four draws and five defeats, with 18 goals scored and 14 conceded. That’s respectable, but it doesn’t scream domination. They’ve been organised on the road and not often overrun, yet the attacking output is modest. Eighteen away goals across the league campaign is the sort of number that makes you wonder where the breakthrough is coming from if a match turns scrappy. And this one usually does.
The flip side is that CSKA don’t come into this rattled. They’re unbeaten in four, and there’s a calmer edge to their recent work. The 1-0 win at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia was mature, and the victory over Ludogorets showed they can handle pressure games. Hristo Yanev has them competing properly. Still, there’s a limit to how much that settles matters when they go to Levski’s ground, where the home side have been almost miserly. CSKA will need discipline and patience. They won’t get many second chances.
Head-to-Head
Levski’s 3-1 win at CSKA on 25 April is the most recent clear marker in this derby, and it’s the one both camps will remember best. It followed a 1-1 draw in the same fixture earlier in April, which fits a familiar pattern of tight, tense meetings with the odd game breaking open.
Go back a little further and the balance is mixed. CSKA beat Levski 1-0 in November, the teams shared a 2-2 draw in March 2025, and Levski have also won 1-0 at home in October 2024. There’s no single dominant line. What there is, though, is a strong sense that these games rarely get away from either side for long. They tend to stay close. That matters here.
We Predict: Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X at 2/5 looks the right angle for this derby. Levski’s home record is simply too strong to ignore, and their season-long numbers — first place, 77 points, only 10 conceded at home — tell you they don’t often hand over control in Sofia. CSKA are decent on the road, but not dominant, and their away goal return is pretty thin for a team trying to take points from the league leaders. This isn’t a spot to chase the away side.
A 1-1 scoreline feels the likeliest outcome, which sits neatly with the xG projection of 1.1 to 0.7. Levski have enough to score, but CSKA have shown enough resilience to keep this from becoming a comfortable home win. If you want a sharper angle, under 2.5 goals also has real appeal, especially with both teams’ recent derby meetings leaning tight. But the safer call is still the home side avoiding defeat. That’s the play.
