NK Istra 1961 host NK Slaven Belupo in the HNL on Monday evening, 4 May 2026, with both sides still fighting for position in the lower half of the table. It’s 8th against 7th, and the gap between them is only two points. That keeps the stakes properly alive. One good run changes the mood fast in this part of the league, while another slip drags the loser back into a scrap they’d rather avoid.
For Istra, this is a chance to stop the rot after five straight league defeats since their last win against Varaždin in mid-March. Slaven arrive with a different sort of pressure. They’re above the hosts, but they haven’t won in ten league matches and have been drawing and losing their way through spring. A point would be useful for both. Three would feel huge.
NK Istra 1961 Form & Analysis
Krešimir Režić’s side come into this one in a rough patch, and there’s no sugar-coating it. Their last six league matches have brought just one win and five defeats, with the most recent setback coming away at HNK Gorica on 27 April, a narrow 1-0 loss settled by Jurica Pršir’s first-half goal. Before that, they were beaten at home by Dinamo Zagreb, lost 2-1 against Vukovar 1991 in Pula, then fell 2-0 at Lokomotiva Zagreb. Go back a little further and it gets no kinder: a 3-1 home defeat to Hajduk Split followed their 2-1 win over Varaždin. That was the last time they looked in control of a league match.
The problem for Istra is that the defeats haven’t all looked the same, and that’s almost worse. Against Gorica they had enough of the ball to get into the contest, but the finishing wasn’t there and they ended up losing a game that was pretty even on paper. Against Dinamo and Hajduk, the gaps in quality were obvious. Against Vukovar, though, they’ll feel they let a workable home game slip. That’s the sort of match a mid-table side has to win if they want some breathing room. They didn’t. And they’re paying for it now.
At home this season, Istra’s record is respectable enough without being convincing: five wins, four draws and seven defeats, with 16 goals scored and 23 conceded. That tells you plenty. They’re not being blown away in Pula every week, but they’re not turning home matches into a source of points either. The goals are thin on the ground, and the defence isn’t tight enough to cover that. Still, there are signs they can compete in this kind of fixture. Their last home win came against Varaždin, and they’ve been able to find the net at this ground often enough to keep games alive. The issue is what comes after that. Too many matches turn against them after the first setback.
There’s also a worrying pattern around games getting away from them early. Istra have been first to concede in five of their last six, and they’ve lost the first half in five of those same six. That’s a bad habit. It changes the shape of the game before they’ve settled into it. If that happens again here, the pressure on Režić’s team will be immediate. They can’t keep digging themselves out of holes and expecting it to work.
NK Slaven Belupo Form & Analysis
Slaven Belupo are higher in the standings, but their own run is hardly a comfort blanket. Mario Gregurina’s side drew 2-2 at home to Vukovar 1991 on 25 April, and that result summed them up pretty neatly: lively enough going forward, loose enough behind. Jakov Puljić scored early, Josip Mitrović added another before the break, Marko Dabro made it 3-1 after half-time, and yet they still ended up sharing the points. That kind of collapse stings. It also fits a wider pattern. Before that, they lost 2-1 at Lokomotiva Zagreb, drew 2-2 with Hajduk Split at home, and were beaten away by Varaždin and Rijeka. Their last win came all the way back on 27 February against these very opponents. That’s a long time ago.
The odd thing about Slaven is that they haven’t been terrible to watch. They’ve scored in enough games to keep themselves in the conversation, and the 43 league goals they’ve managed is a decent return for a side in this area of the table. The trouble is the other end. They’ve shipped 52, which is a heavy number, and it’s why decent spells keep getting wiped out by one sloppy phase. The draw with Vukovar followed that same script. They created enough, they threatened enough, and still they couldn’t close the door.
Their away record is the real concern. Two wins, six draws and eight defeats, with 19 scored and 31 conceded on the road, is not the profile of a team you’d trust away from home. They’ve been vulnerable outside their own ground for most of the season, and it’s not just about losing. They’re conceding too often and too early, then leaving themselves to chase the game. That’s a messy way to live. You can get away with it once in a while. Over a full campaign, it tends to catch up with you.
Still, Slaven do carry a threat. Their last few games have shown enough attacking bite to make them dangerous if Istra switch off, and the fact they’ve scored in draws with both Vukovar and Hajduk says they won’t arrive timidly. They’re also unbeaten in six of their last eight meetings with Istra, including a 1-0 win in Koprivnica in February. That may matter more psychologically than anything else. They’ll know they can hurt this opponent. The question is whether they can keep themselves upright long enough to do it again.
Head-to-Head
These two have played out a fairly tight, low-key rivalry in recent seasons, with Slaven holding the better of it. In the eight meetings listed here, they’ve gone unbeaten in six, and the most recent clash finished with Slaven Belupo beating Istra 1-0 on 27 February 2026. Before that, the teams drew 1-1 in Pula in November, while Slaven also won 2-1 at home in September.
There’s a familiar feel to the fixture. A lot of these games have been close, and goals haven’t always come thick and fast. Three of the last five have landed under 2.5 goals, including the two most recent meetings between them. That doesn’t guarantee another cagey night, but it does tell you these sides often cancel each other out rather than producing chaos.
We Predict: Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X at 2/5 looks the right call here. If you want to widen the search beyond this pick, our UK betting apps page pulls together our UK betting app shortlist if you mainly bet from mobile. Istra haven’t been in good form, but they’re at home, and Slaven’s away record is poor enough to make an away win hard to trust. A draw feels very live, and the hosts have just enough home resilience to avoid defeat more often than not in this kind of matchup.
The 1-1 correct score fits the shape of the game best. Slaven have enough attacking punch to score, and Istra’s habit of conceding first makes that likely enough. But the visitors don’t defend well enough on the road to feel secure, and that opens the door for the hosts to nick something. If you want a slightly bolder angle, under 2.5 goals has a decent case on the history of the fixture, though both teams have shown enough flaws to keep the scoring market from feeling completely safe.
