AFC Ajax host FC Groningen on Thursday evening in the Europa Playoffs of the VriendenLoterij Eredivisie, with the prize simple enough: keep the season alive and push a step closer to European football. For Ajax, that’s the bare minimum after a campaign that hasn’t gone to plan. For Groningen, it’s a shot at a bigger ending than most people would’ve given them a few weeks ago.
This is knockout football, so the table no longer matters. One bad night and you’re done. Ajax will feel the pressure of expectation at home, but Groningen arrive with a sense of freedom and a bit of bite after putting together a lively finish to the regular season. The first meeting between these sides in March went Groningen’s way in a 3-1 win, and that result will still be fresh enough in the memory to keep Ajax honest.
There’s also a familiar edge to this fixture. Ajax have often had the better of Groningen over the years, but recent meetings have been more open than one-sided. Goals usually turn up. That’s the key thread here. This feels like a tie where both teams will back themselves to hurt the other, and that’s exactly why the betting angle is so straightforward.
AFC Ajax Form & Analysis
Ajax come into this playoff tie without much momentum. Their last six league matches have produced just one win, and that came away at NAC Breda on 25 April, a tidy 2-0 success that briefly hinted they were finding some rhythm. Since then, though, it’s been a flatter story. A 2-2 home draw with PSV Eindhoven looked respectable on paper, but the following week’s 1-2 home defeat to FC Utrecht brought the mood down again. Then came the most recent outing, a goalless draw at SC Heerenveen on 17 May — not a disaster, but not the kind of performance that screams control either.
That Heerenveen stalemate told you a fair bit about Ajax right now. They had 22 shots and 1.83 xG, so the creativity wasn’t absent, but the finishing touch wasn’t there. Worse still, they allowed 16 shots and 2 big chances at the other end. That’s the problem in a nutshell. Ajax can still generate volume, they can still push sides back, but they’re leaving the door open. That won’t do in knockout football.
At home, the picture hasn’t been particularly reassuring either. Their recent results at this ground include defeats to FC Utrecht and FC Twente, with the draw against PSV sitting between them. There’s quality in the squad, no question. But the defensive edge that Ajax are supposed to bring at home hasn’t been reliable enough, and when they do score, they’re not always able to control what happens next. Three games without a win is hardly a crisis in itself. For Ajax, though, it feels like a warning light.
FC Groningen Form & Analysis
Groningen arrive in better spirits. Their last six league matches have been a proper rollercoaster, but the recent part of that run has been strong enough to matter. They beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1 at home on 10 May, then followed it with a 2-1 away win over Heracles Almelo on 17 May. That’s back-to-back victories at the right moment. Before that, there were setbacks — a 2-3 home loss to Excelsior and a 3-1 defeat at Feyenoord — but even those games weren’t lifeless. Groningen were willing to play, willing to attack, and willing to take risks.
The win at Heracles was a decent away performance in its own right. Groningen created a respectable 1.18 xG, kept Heracles to 0.64 xGA, and won the shot count 16-11. They weren’t flawless, but they were efficient where it counted. David van der Werff gave them the perfect start after three minutes, Tristan van Gilst added a second, and Tygo Land wrapped it up after the break. That sort of front-foot start changes the entire mood of a knockout tie. If they can begin in that sort of fashion again, Ajax will have plenty to think about.
Away from home, Groningen have been more dangerous than their wider reputation suggests. They’ve won at SC Telstar and, more recently, at Heracles, while the loss at Feyenoord came in a match where they still found the net. They don’t travel to sit deep and hope for scraps. They’ll have a go. Mind you, that willingness to attack comes with risk. Groningen have gone through plenty of games without a clean sheet, and that’s why their matches tend to open up. Still, they’re carrying enough attacking threat to trouble a shaky Ajax back line.
Head-to-Head
Recent meetings point strongly towards goals and toward both sides finding moments to attack. Groningen beat Ajax 3-1 in the league on 7 March 2026, and that was followed by Ajax’s 2-0 home win in December. Go back a bit further and the pattern gets even more familiar: a 2-2 draw in Groningen in May 2025, Ajax wins by 3-1 and 3-0 at home, and a wild 6-1 success for Ajax back in 2022. These games rarely stay cagey for long.
The broader trend is hard to ignore. Ajax usually do enough to impose themselves, but Groningen have repeatedly shown they can get at them and score. That’s the bit that matters most here. If the recent meetings have taught us anything, it’s that one clean sheet doesn’t define this fixture. Not even close.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 1/2 for this playoff tie. It’s a short price, but it’s a fair one. Ajax have been loose at the back, Groningen have scored in enough of their recent away games to be taken seriously, and the head-to-head record leans the same way. These teams just don’t look built for a tight, sterile 90 minutes.
The projected 2-1 Ajax win fits the shape of the game well. Ajax should have enough home quality to edge it, especially if they get an early foothold, but Groningen have shown too much attacking intent to be shut out completely. If you want an alternative, over 2.5 goals also has a strong case given the history between the sides and the way both squads are currently playing.
