Başakşehir FK and Kasımpaşa meet in the Trendyol Süper Lig on Friday evening, 24 April 2026, with the hosts chasing a finish inside the European places and the visitors still trying to pull clear of trouble in the lower half. There’s a clear gap in the table, and it feels like one of those derbies where the standings don’t tell the whole story. Başakşehir are fifth with 48 points. Kasımpaşa sit 13th on 31. One side is looking up, the other is looking over its shoulder.
For Nuri Şahin’s team, this is the sort of home fixture that usually needs to be banked. They’ve spent the season as one of the more reliable top-half sides, and a win here would keep pressure on the teams above them. Emre Belözoğlu’s Kasımpaşa arrive with a bit of momentum after a tidy recent run, but they’re still carrying a defensive burden that makes life hard away from home. The numbers lean strongly towards Başakşehir. So do the recent meetings.
Başakşehir FK Form & Analysis
Başakşehir have been steady rather than spectacular over the last few weeks, and that’s often enough to keep a European push alive. They went to Trabzonspor on 19 April and came away with a 1-1 draw, a result that had a bit of grit to it. They were behind in the second half, then found an equaliser through Davie Selke in stoppage time. Before that, they beat Gençlerbirliği 3-0 at home, a clean and comfortable afternoon that showed what they can do when they get control of a match.
There’s no wild momentum spike here, but there doesn’t need to be. Over their last six, Başakşehir have lost only once, and that came away to Galatasaray in a 3-0 defeat on 14 March. Since then they’ve been hard to beat, with draws at Kocaelispor and against Antalyaspor adding to the feeling of a side that knows how to keep things tight when the game turns awkward. They also beat Göztepe 2-1 at home on 7 March. That’s a decent mix: enough attacking threat to win matches, enough restraint to avoid getting dragged into chaos too often.
Their home record explains why they’re rightly fancied here. At their own ground, Başakşehir have taken 24 points from 15 games, with six wins, six draws and only three losses. They’ve scored 26 and conceded 17 at home, which is a healthy return and one that compares well with a lot of teams around them. They’re not blowing sides away every week, but they are productive enough. That matters. A lot of their work is done in the first hour, then they manage the game properly. The flip side is that they don’t always shut the door, so a clean sheet isn’t guaranteed.
The underlying shape of their season points to a side that can control territory and create enough to win without having to go mad in the final third. Their xG projection for this one sits at 1.6, which fits the eye test. You’d expect Başakşehir to have the ball, pin Kasımpaşa back for spells and eventually force the issue. The question isn’t whether they can make chances. It’s whether they finish enough of them to turn control into points. At home, they’ve generally done that.
Kasımpaşa Form & Analysis
Kasımpaşa have at least arrived with a bit of life in them. Their 1-0 home win over Alanyaspor on 19 April was exactly the kind of result they needed: narrow, disciplined and built on a clean sheet. It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. Before that, they drew 3-3 away to Göztepe in a game that summed up their season rather neatly. Goals at one end, nerves at the other. Then came a 2-0 home win over Kayserispor. Three useful results, three signs that they’re not just drifting into the run-in.
Mind you, the wobbles are never far away. Their 2-1 defeat at Beşiktaş on 19 March reminded everyone that away from home they can still be exposed, especially when the game opens up. They did beat Eyüpspor 1-0 at home and draw 1-1 away to Konyaspor in the matches around it, so the recent picture is more positive than the season-long league position suggests. Still, the table doesn’t lie forever. They’re 13th for a reason, and the defensive record is part of that story.
Their away numbers are modest and that’s putting it politely. Kasımpaşa have taken just 14 points from 15 away matches, with three wins, five draws and seven defeats. They’ve scored 16 and conceded 23 on the road. That’s not awful, but it’s not the profile of a team you trust in a difficult away fixture either. They do score, which keeps them alive in matches, yet too often they give opponents a way back in. Their away xG projection for this game is only 0.7. That’s a warning sign.
The bigger issue is the defensive ceiling. Even in the better recent spells, they’ve rarely looked secure for long stretches away from home. They can nick a goal, they can hang around, and they’ve shown enough resilience to avoid being steamrolled in every match. But at some point, somebody has to stop the flow at the back. That’s where Kasımpaşa keep falling short. On the road, they’re liable to concede first and chase from there. Against a top-half side with a stronger home record, that’s a dangerous place to be.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has been painfully consistent for Kasımpaşa in the wrong direction. Başakşehir haven’t lost to them in the last 12 meetings, and the recent results are blunt enough. Başakşehir won 3-1 away in November 2025, followed that with a 3-2 victory at Kasımpaşa in May 2025, and before that the two sides drew 2-2 in December 2024. Go a little further back and the pattern hardens even more: 4-1 to Başakşehir in May 2024, 3-0 away in January 2024, then another 3-1 win in January 2023.
There’s one trend that really jumps off the page. These meetings tend to have goals. Lots of them. The last nine head-to-heads have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in five of the last six. That doesn’t automatically force the same outcome on Friday, but it does tell you these sides rarely sit in each other’s pockets for long. Başakşehir usually find a way through, and Kasımpaşa rarely keep them out.
We Predict: Home Win
We’re backing Başakşehir FK to win at 8/13 here. It’s a fair price for a home side sitting fifth, unbeaten in four, and facing an opponent with only three away wins all season. The home record is the big clue. So is the head-to-head dominance. Başakşehir have simply had Kasımpaşa’s number for years now, and there’s nothing in the recent form to suggest that’s about to change.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to Başakşehir. That fits the numbers, the xG projection and the history of this fixture. Kasımpaşa should be good for a goal — they’ve scored in enough recent games to suggest they won’t fold completely — but Başakşehir look the more stable side, and they’ve got just enough attacking quality at home to get it done. If you wanted a livelier angle, both teams to score has obvious appeal given the recent meetings, but the cleaner play is the home win. Başakşehir are the better side. They should prove it.
