CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets meet again at the business end of the First Professional League season, this time in the Championship Round at the Bulgarian capital’s biggest stage. Sunday evening’s clash carries real weight in the race for the European places and the final shape of the top end of the table. CSKA sit fourth on 56 points and need results to keep pressure on the teams above them, while Ludogorets are third on 60 and know a clean finish to the campaign would tighten their grip on a strong league position.
There’s also a sharp competitive edge to this one because these clubs have just spent the last week battering away at each other in the Bulgarian Cup. They played out a goalless draw in Sofia on 29 April, three days after CSKA had beaten Ludogorets 2-1 away in the cup on 21 April. That gives this league meeting a slightly edgy feel. Neither side will be short of familiarity. Neither side has much room to slip.
The league table gives the basic outline, but the home-and-away splits tell you why this could be tight. CSKA have been excellent at their own ground all season, while Ludogorets have been very solid on the road. Put those two things together and you get a match with more control than chaos on paper. Yet these are still the two biggest names in Bulgarian football. The margin for error is tiny.
CSKA Sofia Form & Analysis
CSKA’s recent run has been a bit stop-start, and that’s putting it kindly. They opened this sequence with that 0-0 cup draw against Ludogorets on 29 April, a game that probably felt more frustrating for the hosts given their need to turn momentum into results. Before that came a painful 3-1 home defeat to Levski Sofia in the league on 25 April. That was the kind of result that hurts twice — the points gone, and the local bragging rights too. Still, there was a strong response only four days earlier, when CSKA went to Razgrad and beat Ludogorets 2-1 in the cup. That was a proper statement. The kind supporters cling to.
Step back a little further and the picture is more stable. They drew 1-1 with Levski at home on 13 April, then picked up away wins at Montana and Beroe, winning 1-0 and 3-0 respectively. That’s a useful reminder that CSKA can travel well too, but the story of the last month is more about mixed edges than smooth rhythm. Two draws, a loss and three wins from their last six is solid enough, though the home defeat to Levski has taken some of the shine off. They’ve scored in four of those six, but they’ve also had games where chance creation never really turned into control. That’s the nagging issue.
At home in the league, CSKA have been one of the stronger sides in the division: 10 wins, four draws and only two defeats, with 27 scored and 12 conceded. That’s a serious record. It tells you they’re usually hard to break down in Sofia, and they rarely allow games to drift badly. They’re not a wild attacking team, though. The home numbers point more to balance than domination. They’ll stay in matches, keep the shape, and rely on moments rather than constant waves. The problem for Hristo Yanev is that Ludogorets don’t usually give away many cheap moments.
There’s also a broader theme running through CSKA’s season: they’re good enough to trouble anyone, but they don’t always carry that edge into the big moments. Against Levski they were beaten. Against Ludogorets in the cup they found a way. That inconsistency is why they’re stuck chasing rather than dictating in the Championship Round. They won’t be easy to roll over here. That much is clear. But a draw would still feel more useful than a win here, and that changes the shape of the contest.
Ludogorets Form & Analysis
Ludogorets come into this one with their own awkward recent run, even if their overall season numbers still look stronger than CSKA’s. Their last six have brought just one win, and that came back on 5 April when they beat FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 3-0 at home. Since then, they’ve lost twice to CSKA and once to FC CSKA 1948 Sofia in the league, with a 0-0 draw against Cherno More in between. That’s five without a win. Not good enough for a club used to leading the way, and it explains why Per Mathias Hogmo will want a much sharper response on Sunday.
The sequence is slightly deceptive because some of the performances haven’t been disastrous. The 0-0 against Cherno More was a flat but controlled afternoon. The cup defeat to CSKA on 21 April was narrow, and the 0-0 draw in Sofia four days ago was about containment first and foremost. Still, results matter, and Ludogorets have been beaten at home by FC CSKA 1948 Sofia in the league, which is the sort of result that can puncture confidence if the response isn’t immediate. Away to Arda on 15 April they lost 1-0, so there’s been precious little to get excited about. One win in six. That’s a slump by their standards.
The away record remains one of the reasons they’re still in a strong league position. Ludogorets have picked up 28 points on the road from 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 29 and conceding 11. Those are proper title-chasing numbers, even if they’re not quite as ruthless as in some previous seasons. They’re efficient away from home. They don’t usually concede much. And they’ve got the sort of structure that keeps them alive in tight matches even when they’re not flowing. Away from home, that defensive base matters more than flashy possession.
What’s changed is the edge in attack. Ludogorets have the stronger season-long goal return, with 58 scored and only 22 conceded overall, but recent away games have been much tighter. They’ve failed to score in their last two trips to CSKA-related opposition scenarios if you include the cup draw in Sofia, and they’ve been kept to one goal or none too often in this run. That doesn’t mean they’re toothless. It means they’ve lost a bit of certainty in the final third. Can they rediscover that on Sunday? They’ll need to.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has a familiar pattern, and it isn’t usually one for wild scorelines. The last eight meetings include several tight games, with Ludogorets generally having the stronger long-term edge, but CSKA have shown they can upset that rhythm. In March, Ludogorets beat CSKA 3-0 in Razgrad. Before that, the league meeting in Sofia ended 0-0, and the cup ties this spring have already produced a 2-1 CSKA win away and a 0-0 draw in the capital.
One H2H trend stands out from the wider sample: Ludogorets have scored first in eight of the last ten meetings. That matters here. If they get the opener, they’re usually good at controlling the rest. If CSKA strike first, the script changes quickly. This is not a fixture where either side gets long spells of comfort.
We Predict: Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 at 1.40 looks the best angle for this one. For more context beyond this pick, see our guide to BTTS betting, which breaks down the BTTS market and shows when both-teams-to-score bets tend to hold up best. Ludogorets haven’t been sparkling, but they’re still the side with the stronger overall season profile, the better goal difference, and a very decent away record. CSKA’s home numbers are strong, yes, and that’s exactly why this isn’t a straightaway away win call. But Ludogorets rarely collapse for long, and they’ve already shown in the recent cup meetings that they can keep this fixture under control.
The most likely score is 1-1. That fits the shape of both teams right now: CSKA sturdy at home but not always ruthless, Ludogorets organised enough to avoid defeat but not quite firing cleanly enough to dominate. If you want a slightly different route, under 2.5 goals also has a decent case given how the recent meetings have gone. Still, the draw no bet feel here is stronger than any outright outcome.
