De Graafschap host Almere City FC on Saturday evening, 9 May 2026, in the Keuken Kampioen Playoffs with a place in the next phase of the promotion/relegation picture on the line. It’s the sort of tie that can flip a season in a few frantic minutes. One side wants to keep its top-flight hopes alive. The other is trying to turn this into a genuine survival push of its own.
The first leg was played only days ago, on 6 May, and Almere City took it 3-1 at home. That gives Jeroen Rijsdijk’s side a clear advantage, but not a shut door. De Graafschap know exactly what they need: a sharp start, a goal that changes the mood, and no repeat of the flat defending that cost them in Almere. Marinus Dijkhuizen’s team have plenty of attacking punch themselves, so this isn’t over by a long shot. Still, if they leave gaps early, Almere will fancy finishing the job.
De Graafschap Form & Analysis
De Graafschap arrive with a form line that’s been messy but rarely dull. Their most recent outing, that 3-1 defeat away to Almere City on 6 May, was a painful one because the game got away from them once the spaces opened up. Before that, they’d lost 1-0 away at FC Emmen in the league, a tight result that hinted at a side capable of staying competitive even when not at their best. But if you go back a little further, the pattern is clearer: this is a team that can score, can entertain, and can also leave itself exposed.
At home, the story is more encouraging. De Graafschap beat SC Cambuur 3-1 on 17 April, and before that they demolished Jong AZ Alkmaar 5-0 on 6 April. Those results weren’t flukes. They came from a side willing to play on the front foot, push bodies forward and keep pressing even after scoring once. The draw with VVV-Venlo and the 2-2 away at FC Eindhoven show the same thing: they’re never far from a goal, and they’re rarely involved in dead, stale matches. That’s a useful trait in a knockout tie. It also means they’re not built for caution. Not really.
The weakness is obvious enough. De Graafschap have conceded in four straight matches and haven’t kept a clean sheet in that run. That’s the blunt truth. When they’re stretched, they can be got at. Their home record also tells the same story in a broader sense: the goals are there, but the defensive control isn’t. Against a side like Almere City, who are carrying serious attacking momentum, that’s a concern. You’d expect De Graafschap to score here. You’d also expect them to need more than one.
Almere City FC Form & Analysis
Almere City come into the return leg with the healthier look. Their 3-1 win over De Graafschap on 6 May was a statement performance, and it followed a 3-0 home win against FC Den Bosch in the playoffs. Go back one more match and they’d also beaten Den Bosch 3-2 away, which tells you a lot about their current mood: they’re finding ways to score goals, and they’re doing it in different sorts of games. Sometimes they’re open and chaotic. Sometimes they’re more controlled. Either way, they’re hard to pin down.
What stands out most is how often Almere are involved in high-scoring matches. Their recent run includes a 4-1 home win over FC Dordrecht, a 3-1 away loss to VVV-Venlo, and that 2-1 defeat at Willem II before the current surge. Put simply, they’re not grinding teams down with sterile possession. They’re trying to win games through tempo, movement and decisive moments in the final third. That approach can leave them vulnerable, but it also gives them a real edge when the game opens up. And this second leg should open up.
Their away record isn’t flawless, and that matters. The loss at VVV-Venlo was a reminder that they don’t travel with complete security, while the defeat at Willem II showed that away from home they can be punished if they lose control of the middle of the pitch. But the bigger trend is positive. Almere have won three of their last four in all competitions, and the playoff leg in De Graafschap’s own stadium was won with authority. They created four big chances there and limited De Graafschap to very little. That’s a proper warning shot. If they start well again, they can kill off the tie.
Head-to-Head
These two know each other well, and the recent meetings have generally been lively. Almere City have already beaten De Graafschap twice this year, first 2-0 in the Eerste Divisie on 18 January and then 3-1 in the playoff first leg on 6 May. Before that, De Graafschap edged a 3-2 thriller in September 2025, which fits the broader pattern between them: goals, momentum swings and very little room for either side to settle.
The last eight meetings also point in one clear direction. Four of the last five have gone over 2.5 goals, and four of the last five have seen both teams score. That’s not a coincidence. These teams tend to trade chances rather than sit on their hands. For De Graafschap, that’s both the opportunity and the problem. If they go chasing the game, they may get the goals they need. They may also leave themselves open to another Almere break. Dangerous stuff.
We Predict: Over 2.5 Goals
We’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2/5 here, and it’s the strongest angle on the board. Our accumulator betting guide is a useful companion here because it breaks down accumulator betting including how to build combos without padding the slip. The first leg ended 3-1, both sides have been involved in plenty of open games lately, and the head-to-head trend leans the same way. De Graafschap can score at home and Almere have been ruthless enough to punish the gaps. That combination usually points towards goals, not restraint.
A 2-1 home win feels like the likeliest scoreline, but even that would land the over. De Graafschap need to take risks, and Almere don’t look like a side who’ll just sit in and protect a lead for 90 minutes. If the hosts get one early, this could really catch fire. The alternative angle is Both Teams to Score, which has plenty of appeal too, but Over 2.5 is the cleaner play given the way these teams have been playing and the way the tie stands.
