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FC Groningen welcome Excelsior to Euroborg on Saturday evening in the VriendenLoterij Eredivisie, with both sides still chasing a cleaner finish to the campaign. Groningen sit ninth on 42 points and have enough breathing room to avoid panic, but there’s still something to play for: a strong final run would keep them in the mix for a respectable top-half finish. Excelsior, meanwhile, are 14th on 31 points and don’t have that luxury. They’re not in danger of immediate collapse, but the bottom half is crowded, and every point matters if they want to steer clear of a nervy end to the season.
There’s also a sense that this should be a decent watch. Groningen have been lively at home, scoring 23 and conceding only 14 in 15 league games on their own turf. Excelsior have been far looser away, with 30 goals shipped in 15 road trips. That’s the sort of split that tends to matter. One side is fairly composed in front of its own crowd; the other has too often opened the door.
The recent context adds a bit of spice too. Groningen were beaten 3-1 away at Feyenoord on 25 April, but they had already turned heads with home wins over Ajax and AZ in March. Excelsior arrive off the back of a wild 5-0 home demolition of FC Utrecht on 26 April, a result that looked like a statement. Was it a turning point, or just a one-off burst of chaos? Saturday will tell us plenty.
Groningen’s recent form has had a bit of everything. They went to Volendam on 1 March and lost 3-2 in a game that clearly could’ve gone either way. A week later they beat Ajax 3-1 at home, which is the sort of result that gives a season some shape. Then came a 1-1 draw at PEC Zwolle, followed by another eye-catching home display: a 3-0 win over AZ Alkmaar on 22 March. That was no fluke either. They then went to Telstar and won 2-0, only to be pulled back to earth by Feyenoord last time out. Three wins from their last six is solid enough. The away losses have come against stronger teams, but the pattern is clear: at home, Groningen can be a proper handful.
The home record backs that up. Six wins, four draws and five losses from 15 league matches at Euroborg is respectable, and the goals numbers are tidy too: 23 scored, only 14 conceded. That’s the kind of platform managers like Dick Lukkien dream about. Groningen aren’t blowing teams away every week, but they’ve got enough punch to hurt opponents and, just as importantly, enough structure to stop matches slipping out of control. Their recent home wins over Ajax and AZ tell you this isn’t a side that fades when the opposition name gets bigger. Quite the opposite, really.
There is a minor wrinkle. Groningen haven’t been completely ruthless, and some of their away results suggest they can still be exposed when the tempo rises. But at home, they’ve usually found a way to stay in the game and lean on control rather than chaos. Even in the defeat at Feyenoord, they managed a goal and posted a decent xG figure of 1.47. That matters. They’re not a team stuck in their own half waiting to be beaten. They create. They do enough to make BTTS a live angle, especially against an Excelsior side that can defend badly when the game opens up.
Excelsior’s recent run is a little messier, and that’s putting it politely. They started with a 1-2 home defeat to SC Heerenveen on 7 March, then drew 1-1 away at Heracles. A 2-1 loss at Feyenoord followed, then a 0-2 home reverse against NEC Nijmegen. They drew 2-2 at PEC Zwolle, which at least stopped the slide, before exploding for that 5-0 win over Utrecht in Rotterdam. On paper, that looks like a dramatic bounce. In truth, it’s one huge result sitting beside a stack of underwhelming ones. That won’t erase the broader picture.
The away numbers are decent enough to keep them from being written off, but not good enough to inspire confidence. Three wins, five draws and seven defeats on the road, with 17 scored and 30 conceded, tells you exactly where the problems lie. Excelsior can scrap and, on a decent day, nick a result. But away from home they’ve spent too much time chasing matches. Ruben den Uil will know that if Groningen get on top early, this could become a long afternoon. The one thing that should worry the visitors is how frequently they allow the other side to strike first. If they’re open from the outset, Groningen’s home pace can punish them.
Still, there’s attacking life in this team. They’ve scored in enough road games to avoid being dismissed outright, and their recent xG output at home against Utrecht was strong, with 3.40 generated and six big chances created. That was a serious attacking performance, even if the opposition collapsed early after a red card. The question is whether they can bring even half of that fluency to Euroborg without the game state doing them favours. Can they keep it up on the road? That’s the issue. Against a Groningen side that’s solid at home and good at imposing itself, Excelsior will need a fast start and some defensive discipline. Neither has been a regular feature.
Groningen have had the better of this fixture more often than not, and the recent meetings lean their way too. They beat Excelsior 2-0 in Rotterdam on 5 December 2025, which extended a useful pattern in this matchup. Looking further back, Groningen won 3-0 at home in February 2023, and the teams have also played out a couple of tight cup ties, including a 2-0 Groningen win in January 2024 and a 4-2 away victory in December 2021.
There’s a clear thread running through the rivalry. Groningen have won three of the most recent meetings listed, and Excelsior haven’t scored in three of them. That’s not everything, of course, but it does add a little weight to the hosts, especially when you fold in Groningen’s stronger home profile this season. One thing does stand out even more: these games have often stayed fairly controlled, with five of the last six head-to-heads finishing under 2.5 goals. That’s a useful hint, even if both teams have enough attacking intent to keep BTTS firmly in play.
We’re backing Both Teams to Score at 8/15 here. For more context beyond this pick, see our Bet365 review, which covers the main Bet365 strengths and drawbacks before you decide whether it fits the kind of bets you place. It’s a short price, but it feels fair. Groningen have scored in almost all the right places at home and have the quality to nick a goal even if Excelsior settle well. The visitors, for their part, have enough going forward to trouble a Groningen back line that isn’t flawless, particularly if they can turn this into an open game rather than a grind.
The projected 2-1 scoreline fits the shape of the match. Groningen should have more control, more territory and the better chance of dictating tempo, but Excelsior’s recent ability to find the net — especially when the match loosens up — keeps them in the frame. A home win wouldn’t shock anyone. Neither would a 1-1 for a while. Still, the likeliest path looks like both sides scoring, with Groningen just having the edge where it matters.
If you want a slightly more conservative angle, Groningen draw no bet would also have some appeal. But BTTS is the cleaner play here. The numbers, the home-away split, and the recent habits all point the same way.
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