Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Roda JC Kerkrade Prediction & Betting Tips 24.04.2026

Jong AZ Alkmaar welcome Roda JC Kerkrade to the AFAS Trainingscomplex on Friday evening in the Eerste Divisie, and the table gives this one a clear edge. Frank Peereboom’s side sit 19th with 37 points, stuck in a rough season that’s been full of goals at both ends and far too many defeats. Roda, under Kevin Van Dessel, arrive in eighth with 55 points and still with a decent shout of finishing the campaign strongly, even if the gap to the promotion picture has already opened up a bit.

For Jong AZ, the job is simple enough on paper: stop the slide, show some pride, and try to make home advantage count for once. For Roda, it’s about banking points on the road and protecting a superb away record that’s kept them in the top half. They’ve been one of the league’s better travelling sides all season. That matters here. A lot.

There’s also a familiar pattern to this fixture. Recent meetings have been lively, often messy and usually good for goals. The most recent meeting in December finished Roda JC Kerkrade 2-3 Jong AZ Alkmaar, and that fits the broader feel of the matchup: plenty of chances, plenty of space, and rarely much clean-sheet comfort for either side. Friday’s game has the same smell about it.

Jong AZ Alkmaar Form & Analysis

Jong AZ come into this one off the back of a brutal night at Willem II, where they were beaten 3-0 on 17 April. The scoreline told its own story, even if the raw numbers were a bit more awkward. They actually had 20 shots to Willem II’s 19, but only three of them hit the target, and their 1.13 xG barely scratched the surface against an opponent who created 1.98. That’s been the issue for Peereboom’s side all season: they can get into games, but they don’t control them and they don’t protect themselves well enough when things turn.

Before that, there was a home defeat to Jong PSV, a 2-0 loss that underlined the fragility at the AFAS Trainingscomplex. Yet Jong AZ had shown a flash of life in early April, beating Helmond Sport 2-0 at home after that wild 4-3 win away at SC Cambuur. That Cambuur result is a perfect snapshot of what this team can be. They’ll open things up, they’ll score, and they’ll leave the door hanging wide. Then came a 1-1 draw with MVV Maastricht and the momentum was gone again. Three games without a win now, and the most recent outing was the worst of the lot.

Their home record tells you why they’re down near the bottom. Jong AZ have won only three, drawn two and lost 13 on their own ground, scoring 24 and conceding 36. That’s not a bad patch. That’s a season-long problem. They’ve been able to nick the odd result, but too many teams leave with points and too many games get away from them once the tempo rises. The 24 home goals aren’t dreadful, but the 36 conceded is the killer. You’re not surviving much with that sort of defensive return.

Still, they’ve got one thing going for them going into Friday: they’re rarely dull at home. They’ve got enough attacking quality to find openings, and the numbers at their ground point to games that become stretched rather than tight. The downside is obvious. If they start slowly, or if the first goal goes against them, they tend to get dragged into a chase. That won’t suit them against a Roda side with a strong away record and a sharper edge in the final third.

Roda JC Kerkrade Form & Analysis

Roda’s last outing was a bit frustrating, though not disastrous. They drew 2-2 at home to FC Emmen on 17 April in a game where they actually looked capable of more. They created 2.05 xG to Emmen’s 1.56, produced six shots on target and carved out four big chances. Even after Lukas Larsen was sent off in the 67th minute, they still found a way to stay in the contest and leave with a point. That says something about their resilience. It also says they might’ve won it with eleven men.

Before that, they’d beaten FC Eindhoven 3-1 away on 10 April, which is exactly the sort of result that keeps a team like Roda in the upper half of the table. That followed a 1-0 home defeat to Willem II and a 3-0 win at FC Dordrecht, plus a 1-1 draw with Helmond Sport and a narrow 1-0 home loss to Vitesse. So the story isn’t one of flawless form. It’s more uneven than that. But they’re still picking up points, and they’re doing a lot of their best work away from home.

The away record jumps off the page. Roda are second in the league’s away table with 10 wins, six draws and just two defeats, scoring 33 and conceding 24. That’s a top-side travelling return. Simple as that. They don’t just avoid trouble on the road; they regularly impose themselves. Ten away wins in this division is a serious marker, and it makes them look a much bigger threat here than their eighth-place standing alone might suggest.

There’s balance to their game too. They’ve scored 59 goals overall and conceded 52, which is tidy without being elite, but their away performances suggest they’re comfortable in open matches. They don’t need everything to be perfect. If the game gets stretched, they usually fancy themselves. Can they keep that up in Heerlen? That’s the real question. On current evidence, they should expect to create chances, and Jong AZ have done very little to suggest they’ll shut anyone down for long.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has produced a decent bit of chaos in recent seasons. The most recent meeting ended in a 3-2 win for Jong AZ in Kerkrade in December, and that followed a 3-3 draw in February 2025. Go back a little further and the goals keep coming: Jong AZ won 6-1 at home in August 2024, then 1-0 in February 2024, while Roda picked up a 3-1 home win in October 2023 and a 2-0 victory in March 2023.

That’s four of the last five meetings landing with more than 2.5 goals, and that pattern matters here. These sides don’t tend to close each other down for long. One goal usually leads to another. Then another. It’s been a lively matchup for a while, and there’s little reason to expect a sudden change of mood on Friday.

We Predict: Over 2.5 Goals

We’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 4/9 for this one. It’s short enough in the market, but it still feels the right angle. Jong AZ’s home games are routinely open, Roda’s away numbers are excellent, and the recent head-to-head meetings have leaned heavily toward goals. Add in a projected xG line of 1.4 for Jong AZ and 1.8 for Roda, and you’re looking at a game that should produce chances at both ends.

A 1-2 Roda win feels the likeliest scoreline. Their away form is too strong to ignore, and Jong AZ’s defensive record at home is shaky enough to trust the visitors to score twice. That said, the 2-3 meeting in December reminds you this fixture can get away from the defending side quickly. If you want a slightly more aggressive route, Both Teams to Score has obvious appeal as well.