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K. Beerschot V.A. host Lommel SK on Saturday evening in the Pro League relegation/promotion playoff, and it’s a game with a very clear edge to it now: Lommel have already struck first in the tie and arrive with a 3-1 lead from the opening leg. Beerschot need a response. A proper one. Anything less and their promotion hopes start to look thin very quickly.
That first meeting on 2 May had the feel of a match that got away from Beerschot early. Lommel raced into a three-goal advantage by the 24th minute, then protected the damage well enough to leave the home side with a mountain to climb. Beerschot did at least get on the scoresheet through Sam De Grand late on, but the gap was already there. Now the return leg brings pressure, urgency and a different kind of risk. Beerschot have to attack, which usually opens the door at the other end. Lommel won’t mind that at all.
Beerschot’s recent run has been messy rather than disastrous, and that distinction matters. They came through a 2-1 home win over Lommel on 17 April, then drew 3-3 away at KAS Eupen in a wild league game on 10 April, before playing out a 1-1 draw away to Patro Eisden Maasmechelen on 23 April. The pattern since then has been less forgiving. A 2-2 draw at home to Patro on 27 April kept them alive, but the 3-1 defeat at Lommel six days later was the real setback. They’ve taken points in patches, yet the whole thing feels fragile. One step forward, one step back.
At home this season, Beerschot’s numbers have been decent enough to keep hope alive, but not strong enough to inspire huge confidence. They’ve shown they can score in bursts — and that matters here — but they’ve also been far too open. The run of results tells the story clearly enough. They’ve gone five matches without a clean sheet, and that’s been a recurring problem in a playoff where margins are thin and mistakes get punished fast. When they’ve been forced to chase games, they’ve looked more dangerous. When they’ve had to control one, they’ve been shaky.
The xG from the first leg was a useful snapshot. Beerschot generated 1.88 expected goals at Lommel and still lost 3-1, which says a lot about both their attacking intent and their defensive issues. They had 13 shots, four on target and two big chances, so the threat was there. But Lommel were sharper in the key moments. Beerschot can’t afford another slow start like that. Not now. If they’re going to turn this tie around, they need early pressure, early territory and — above all — better concentration behind the ball.
Lommel arrive in much better shape, and the confidence has to be obvious after their first-leg win. They beat Beerschot 3-1 on 2 May, and before that they had already put together a neat little run in the playoff, beating RFC Liège 3-0 at home and then following it with a 2-1 away win at the same opponent. That gave them a nice sequence of three wins, and even though there was a wobble before that in the league with losses to Beerschot and Club NXT U23, the current mood is far healthier. They’re not just hanging around. They’re playing with purpose.
Away from home, Lommel’s recent league results were mixed, but the away win at RFC Liège in the playoff will give them plenty of belief. They know they can score on the road, and they’ve done it in a few different ways lately. The 2-1 loss at Beerschot on 17 April came despite a competitive performance, and they’ve since shown that they can tidy up the game when it matters. The 3-0 home win over RFC Liège was controlled. The 2-1 away win was efficient. That’s the kind of profile you want when you’re trying to manage a second leg with a lead.
What stands out most is that Lommel don’t need to dominate possession to be dangerous. In the first leg, they had only nine shots to Beerschot’s 13, yet they were more ruthless with the chances that came their way. Their xG of 1.01 looked modest compared with Beerschot’s 1.88, but the scoreline still ended 3-1. That’s football in a nutshell sometimes. You don’t always need to be the better side to land the better punch. Lee Johnson’s team have done enough in this tie to put themselves in control, and they’ll fancy their chances of making Beerschot chase the game from the start.
This fixture has developed a familiar rhythm. The last six meetings have produced goals at both ends more often than not, and the scorelines tend to be competitive. Beerschot beat Lommel 2-1 in October 2025 and again 2-1 at home in April this year, while Lommel responded with a 3-1 home win a week ago. Go back a little further and the picture still leans toward open football: Lommel won 3-0 in February 2024, Beerschot took a 3-1 away win in November 2022, and Lommel edged a 2-0 home result in September 2022.
The bigger trend is hard to ignore. These meetings rarely stay quiet for long. Five of the last six have seen both teams score, and the recent scorelines point the same way. When Beerschot and Lommel get together, the game usually breathes. That should suit Lommel more than it suits the hosts, because Beerschot are the ones under pressure to take risks.
We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 8/13 here, and it feels like the cleanest angle on the board. If you want to widen the search beyond this pick, our football tips hub pulls together our main football tips hub with singles, goals picks and combo angles in one place. Beerschot can’t sit back at home with a 3-1 deficit to chase, and that should give them enough attacking volume to find a goal. Lommel, meanwhile, have scored in each of the last three meetings with Beerschot and have already shown they can hurt them when the game opens up. That’s the key. Once Beerschot commit bodies forward, the gaps will appear.
The recent numbers nudge the same way. Beerschot have been involved in plenty of games with goals at both ends, and they’ve gone five without a clean sheet. Lommel are in better nick and come in with momentum, but they don’t look like a side built to suffocate a second leg for 90 minutes. A 1-1 draw is the likeliest scoreline, though a 2-1 win either way wouldn’t shock anyone. If you want a slightly more aggressive play, over 2.5 goals has real appeal too, but BTTS is the safer call in a tie like this.
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