Monza vs Empoli Prediction & Betting Tips 08.05.2026

Monza welcome Empoli to the U-Power Stadium on Friday evening, 8 May 2026, in a Serie B meeting that means plenty for both sides, just for very different reasons. Monza are pushing hard near the top of the table and still have promotion business to settle, while Empoli arrive in mid-table with far less pressure but enough pride to want to spoil the script.

For Paolo Bianco’s side, this is the sort of home fixture that can’t be wasted. They sit third with 75 points and a record that has been built on control, goals and very few slip-ups. Empoli, under Fabio Caserta, are 14th on 40 points and well clear of the worst of the scrap, but they’ve spent much of the season living between sturdy performances and frustrating away defeats. Can they make life awkward in Lombardy? They usually need a low-scoring game to do it. That’s the catch.

The context is pretty straightforward. Monza are trying to finish the job from a position of strength; Empoli are trying to show some bite against one of the division’s most efficient home sides. The first meeting of the season ended 1-1 in Empoli back on 1 October 2025, so there is at least a recent reminder that this isn’t a one-way street. But Monza at home are a different beast. Very different.

Monza Form & Analysis

Monza come into this after a chaotic but ultimately damaging 3-2 defeat away to Mantova on 1 May. That game had everything: goals, chances, momentum swings and a late sting in the tail. They went toe to toe in attack, produced 2.14 expected goals, had 23 shots and forced 10 on target, yet still came away empty-handed. That sort of night won’t bother them too much if it’s followed by a response. The concern is what it said about their defensive control away from home. It wasn’t neat. It wasn’t calm. And it finished badly.

Still, that loss sits inside a far stronger recent run than the scoreline suggests. Before Mantova, Monza beat Modena 1-0 at home, swept Sampdoria aside 3-0 away, and handled Bari 2-0 at their own ground. Add the draws with Catanzaro and Venezia, and you’ve got a team that’s been hard to shift for most of the spring. Four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last six is healthy. They’ve only failed to score once in that stretch. That’s the bigger point. They find ways.

Their home record is the kind promotion challengers lean on. Fourteen wins, three draws and just one defeat from 18 league matches at home, with 32 goals scored and only 10 conceded. The only league defeat at this ground came way back on 27 September 2025 against Padova, 1-0. Since then, they’ve made the U-Power Stadium a very awkward place for visiting teams. It’s not just about results either. It’s the control of games. The balance between attacking pressure and defensive discipline is excellent. A home side with a 32-10 goal split doesn’t usually hand out cheap chances. Monza don’t.

There’s a practical edge to their work too. They’re not living on one style of win. They can bully teams with sustained pressure, but they can also win the ugly ones, like the 1-0 over Modena. The only slight wrinkle is that they’ve become a touch more open away from home, and the Mantova defeat showed what happens when the game turns end-to-end. At home, though, they look far more secure. You’d expect them to take the ball, pin Empoli back and ask a simple question: can you live with this for 90 minutes? Most sides in this league can’t.

Empoli Form & Analysis

Empoli arrive with a slightly messy recent picture, and that’s being polite. Their last six reads like a side still searching for rhythm. They beat US Avellino 1912 1-0 at home on 1 May, which was a decent way to steady themselves after a 2-0 defeat at Venezia. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Virtus Entella, then three straight away defeats in the league across Padova, Sampdoria and Venezia. The home win over Pescara, a 4-2 thriller, came with some attacking spark, but it hasn’t translated into consistent away results. Not close.

That away record is the real issue. Four wins, two draws and 12 losses on the road, with only 17 goals scored and 31 conceded. Those are the numbers of a side that’s been far too easy to beat outside their own ground. Away from home they’ve struggled to protect leads, struggled to keep games tight, and often struggled to get themselves into the box with enough regularity to matter. That’s a bad combination when you’re visiting the third-placed team in the division.

The Avellino game was a useful reminder that Empoli can still put together a mature performance when the conditions suit them. They dominated territory, created plenty and restricted the visitors almost completely, with 2.36 xG to 0.19 and 17 shots to five. But there was a wrinkle even in victory: Stiven Shpendi missed a penalty, and Alessandro Fontanarosa saw red deep into stoppage time. That doesn’t help the mood. More importantly, it doesn’t change the overall pattern. When Empoli are away from home, they’re usually the ones under pressure. And they tend to give in.

Fabio Caserta’s side do have one thing going for them: they’re awkward enough to keep games from becoming total routs too often. Their league record contains a fair number of draws, and they’ve shown they can nick a goal in the right moment. Yet this is still a team with a negative goal difference and a habit of trailing in tougher away fixtures. Against Monza’s home structure, that’s a problem. The margins aren’t in their favour. They’ll need to be sharp, brave and a bit lucky.

Head-to-Head

There’s enough history here to give the meeting a bit of texture. The last clash, on 1 October 2025, finished 1-1 in Empoli, which is a useful reminder that Monza don’t always run away with this fixture. Before that, Empoli beat Monza 3-1 at home in May 2025 and also won 3-0 in January 2024. Monza, for their part, beat Empoli 2-0 in August 2023 and 2-1 in March 2023.

The broader pattern is simple enough. Empoli have generally been troublesome for Monza across recent meetings, and they’ve avoided defeat in four straight against them. That won’t mean much if Monza reproduce their home level, but it does stop this from feeling like a banker. It isn’t one. Not quite.

We Predict: Both Teams To Score

We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 8/11 here, and it feels like the sharpest angle in the match. Our treble tips page is a useful companion here because it pulls together treble tips if you want a middle ground between singles and full accumulators. Monza are too strong at home to be ignored, but they’ve just come through a wild 3-2 game at Mantova and face an Empoli side that, for all their away problems, can still nick a goal when the match opens up. Monza have scored in five of their last six, while Empoli’s recent away results suggest they rarely leave quietly. That combination points towards both ends being involved.

The 2-1 Monza win feels right. Bianco’s side should control most of the game and do enough to edge it, but Empoli have just enough attacking threat to make the home defence work for it. There’s a slight tension with Empoli’s away scoring numbers and the fact they’ve been beaten so often on the road, yet that’s exactly why BTTS appeals more than a clean home win or a bigger goals line. If you want a small alternative, Monza to win and both teams to score is the natural follow-up.