NK Lokomotiva Zagreb host HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL on Saturday evening, 16 May 2026, with both clubs arriving in very different places on the table but still with plenty on the line. Lokomotiva sit 6th on 42 points and are trying to finish the season with some pride, while Hajduk are second on 64 points and still chasing the kind of run-in that keeps pressure on the teams above them. That gap in the standings tells you plenty. One side are looking to steady themselves after a patchy spring, the other are expected to play like title contenders, even if they’re not quite top dog.
There’s a little more context here, too. Lokomotiva have spent much of the campaign scrapping in the middle third, and Nikica Jelavić’s side now need to show they can take points off the division’s best when it matters. Hajduk, under Gonzalo García, have the stronger record, the better defensive numbers and the clearer objective. Anything less than three points will feel like a missed step. They don’t need a masterpiece. They just need to be better than Lokomotiva.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Form & Analysis
Lokomotiva’s recent form has been a bit stop-start, and that’s the polite version. They did beat Slaven Belupo 2-1 at home on 21 April, then followed that with a solid 2-0 away win at Gorica on 17 April and a 2-0 home success against Istra 1961 on 11 April. That looked like the kind of run that could kick-start a stronger finish. Then the wheels loosened. A 0-0 draw at Osijek on 25 April was respectable enough, but a 0-3 home defeat to Rijeka on 3 May brought them sharply back down, before a 1-1 draw away at Varaždin on 9 May extended their current winless run to three matches.
The thing with Lokomotiva is that they’re not easy to bully at home, but they’re also not a team you trust to control a game for long spells. Their home record reads eight wins, four draws and five defeats from 17 league matches, with 23 goals scored and 24 conceded. That’s a decent base, but not a dominant one. They’ve been competitive in Zagreb, yes, yet the numbers are hardly intimidating. And when the pressure rises, they’ve shown a tendency to go a bit flat. The 0-3 loss to Rijeka at their own ground was the sort of result that strips away any illusion of consistency.
There are a couple of positives, though. Lokomotiva don’t fold every week, and their last two away outings produced a draw and a win before the Rijeka setback. They’ve also tended to keep games relatively tight, with five of their last seven league matches going under 2.5 goals. That matters here because they’re not built to win shootouts against teams from the top end. If they stay in the game, they’ll fancy a moment from a set piece or a broken attacking move. If Hajduk score first, though, Lokomotiva will have a hard time forcing the issue. That’s the problem. They don’t create enough.
HNK Hajduk Split Form & Analysis
Hajduk’s last six league matches show a side with more quality, even if they’re not currently flying. They edged Varaždin 3-1 at home on 3 May, having earlier drawn 0-0 away at Rijeka on 26 April and beaten Gorica 1-0 at home on 12 April. Between those results came a 1-0 home defeat to Osijek and a 2-2 draw away at Slaven Belupo, which tells its own story: Hajduk are far from untouchable, but they’re usually the side asking the bigger questions. Their most recent outing, though, was rough. A 2-0 loss away to Dinamo Zagreb on 9 May, in a match where they generated only 0.26 xG and conceded 2.53, was a reminder that there’s still a gap between competing and really imposing themselves.
Away from home, Hajduk’s profile is strong. Eight wins, five draws and only four defeats on the road is an excellent return, and 27 goals scored to 17 conceded shows they’re not just scraping by away from Split. They’ve got the best sort of travelling record: solid enough not to panic, dangerous enough to punish mistakes. You can see why they sit second in the league. They don’t need many chances to get in front, and they tend to manage games reasonably well once they do. That’s the sort of profile that usually travels.
Still, there’s a nagging point here: Hajduk haven’t looked entirely convincing in the final third during the past couple of weeks. The Dinamo defeat was a poor attacking performance, and the 0-0 at Rijeka earlier in the month came with limited threat too. They did beat Varaždin 3-1, so it’s not as if the goals have vanished, but they’re not exactly scoring for fun. Gonzalo García’s side are more structured than explosive. That can work away from home. It can also leave them vulnerable if they don’t land the first punch. Against Lokomotiva, though, they should still have enough. Their quality edge is real.
Head-to-Head
Hajduk have had the better of this fixture more often than not, and the recent meetings lean their way. They beat Lokomotiva 2-1 in Split on 15 March 2026, after a 3-1 home win in December 2025. Before that came another Hajduk success, 2-0 at home in September 2025. Lokomotiva have shown they can land a blow, most obviously with a 3-2 home win in February 2025 and a 1-1 draw in Split a little earlier, but the broader pattern favours the visitors.
There’s also a familiar feel to the scoring pattern. These games don’t tend to stay quiet for long. Hajduk have scored in plenty of them, and Lokomotiva have struggled to keep a clean sheet in this matchup for a long stretch. That won’t be lost on either dugout. One more thing: Hajduk have often got the first goal in this fixture. That’s the part Lokomotiva really need to avoid.
We Predict: Away Win
We’re backing Away Win at 4/5 here. Hajduk are the stronger side, they carry the better season-long numbers, and their away record is good enough to trust in a match like this. Lokomotiva have shown some resistance at home, but their recent dip is hard to ignore. Three games without a win, a home loss to Rijeka, and only one goal scored in their last two league outings is not the sort of profile that scares a team chasing second place and more.
The cleanest angle is that Hajduk should find a way through and manage the rest. A 1-2 away win feels right. Lokomotiva can nick a goal — especially at home, and especially if Hajduk are sloppy in transition — but the visitors have more control in midfield and more match-winners in the squad. If you want a small alternative, Hajduk to win and over 1.5 goals looks a touch safer than forcing anything more ambitious.
