NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction & Betting Tips 21.04.2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and NK Slaven Belupo meet in the HNL on Tuesday evening with the table offering very little between them and a lot at stake. Lokomotiva sit sixth, Slaven Belupo fifth, and both clubs are locked on 37 points with identical overall records of nine wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats. That’s the sort of mid-table squeeze that can look harmless from a distance and feel messy up close. One clean run can lift a side into the top half. One bad week and the picture changes fast.

There’s also a slight edge of pressure because both teams know this isn’t just about pride. Slaven Belupo are trying to halt a miserable run and protect their place above Lokomotiva, while Nikica Jelavić’s side have a chance to move level and perhaps go in front on momentum if not goal difference. The first meeting of the season was already eventful, with these two drawing 1-1 in the cup, before Slaven Belupo later won the league meeting 2-0 in February. That adds a layer of familiarity. And a bit of bite.

Lokomotiva come into this one off the back of an excellent away win at HNK Gorica, while Slaven Belupo arrive after a frantic 2-2 draw with Hajduk Split. The contrast matters. One side has finally found a bit of rhythm. The other is still searching for a proper answer to a winless run that keeps stretching.

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Form & Analysis

Lokomotiva’s recent story is a bit uneven, but there’s a clear upward tilt. They were smashed 5-0 at home by Dinamo Zagreb on 21 March, and that sort of result can knock a team sideways. They didn’t fold, though. A 2-1 defeat at Hajduk Split was followed by a 1-1 draw away to HNK Vukovar 1991, then came a confident 2-0 home win over NK Istra 1961. Last time out, they went to HNK Gorica and won 2-0 again. That’s three matches unbeaten, and the best thing about it is the balance. They’re not simply clinging on. They’ve started to control games a little better.

The Gorica win was especially tidy. Lokomotiva created a strong expected goals return of 2.42 while limiting their hosts to just 0.25, and the shot count reflected that control. Mirko Sušak opened the scoring before Jakov Anton Vasilj finished it off, and the clean sheet will please Jelavić as much as the points. This is a side that can be sharp when it gets the first goal. They’ve also scored in five of their last six matches across all competitions listed here, which tells you they’re usually good for at least a chance or two.

At home in the league, Lokomotiva have been solid rather than spectacular: seven wins, four draws and four defeats, with 21 goals scored and 20 conceded. Those numbers are respectable, and they suggest a side that usually competes properly in front of their own crowd. They’re not free-scoring. Far from it. Their general run of going under 2.5 goals in six of their last eight is a clue that their matches often stay tight, and that fits the broader feel of their season. Still, this is the kind of home record that gives them a platform. They don’t get rolled over very often at this ground.

The weakness? They can drift when opponents hit them with quality or pace. Dinamo showed that brutally. Lokomotiva also haven’t turned every decent performance into a win, which is why they’re still stuck in the middle pack rather than pushing higher. But at home they’re awkward enough, organised enough, and usually competitive enough to ask real questions. That won’t be lost on Slaven Belupo.

NK Slaven Belupo Form & Analysis

Slaven Belupo’s recent form is bluntly poor. They haven’t won any of their last eight matches, and that run has done serious damage to their season momentum. Since a 1-0 home win over NK Istra 1961 on 27 February, they’ve fallen into a rut that includes defeats at Dinamo Zagreb, at home to Rijeka, away to Varaždin, and a Croatia Cup loss at Rijeka. The only real breathing space has come through draws with NK Osijek and, most recently, Hajduk Split. That 2-2 result against Hajduk was spirited, yes, but it still wasn’t a win. They’re surviving moments. They’re not finishing games off.

The Hajduk match had some life about it. Slaven Belupo were involved in a lively contest, scored twice, and matched one of the league’s stronger sides for periods. Marko Dabro struck early, Ante Rebić added another before half-time, and they forced enough chaos to keep the game open. Their xG of 2.07 was healthy enough, but they also gave up 1.58 at the other end and have now gone four games without a clean sheet. That matters. A lot. If you’re not winning, you need a defence that at least keeps the floor in place. Slaven’s hasn’t.

Their away record is the bigger concern. Just two wins, six draws and seven defeats on the road, with 18 goals scored and 29 conceded. That’s not a profile you trust easily, especially against a home side that’s been fairly steady in its own stadium. Slaven Belupo have shown they can nick goals away from home, and they’ve usually at least stayed in the game long enough to make life awkward. But the defensive side is fragile. They concede too often, and when they go behind they don’t look especially well built to force a turnaround.

There’s a stubbornness here, though. They’ve drawn enough matches to show they won’t completely collapse. The issue is that draws don’t cure a slump when the win column is empty. Eight without victory is a heavy chain to drag into a game like this. Can they end it in Zagreb? Maybe. But they’ll need to tighten up fast. Right now they look more likely to concede than to control.

Head-to-Head

These two have already produced a few lively meetings this season, and the pattern isn’t hard to spot. Slaven Belupo beat Lokomotiva 2-0 in the league in February, then Lokomotiva got them back in a 4-2 Arena Cup game in January. The cup tie on 10 March was even more chaotic, ending 1-1 after another open contest. Go a little further back and the balance remains fairly even, with Slaven edging some meetings and Lokomotiva winning others. There’s no real long-term dominance either way.

What does stand out is the tendency for goals and both teams to get on the board. In four of the last five meetings, both sides have scored. That’s hard to ignore when these teams are facing each other again with both carrying defensive doubts. This fixture has also been fairly lively without becoming a card-fest or a corner-storm, but the main recurring theme is simple enough: these teams tend to find openings against each other. They know where the gaps are.

We Predict: Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 at 8/13 is the play here. Slaven Belupo’s winless run is the big reason. Eight matches without a victory is a serious weight, and while they’ve been competitive in patches, they haven’t shown the kind of authority you want from a side being asked to win away from home. Lokomotiva’s home record is decent, but not dominant. That opens the door for Slaven to nick something, especially with the recent head-to-head meetings regularly producing chances at both ends.

The 1-1 correct score feels the most natural line. Lokomotiva have been tighter lately and should have enough to score at home, while Slaven’s recent away games have rarely been short of threat even when the result hasn’t followed. One alternative angle would be Both Teams to Score, which has plenty of support from the recent meetings. Still, X2 is the cleaner call. Slaven Belupo probably won’t win the game outright on current form, but they should be good enough to avoid defeat.