NK Varaždin vs HNK Rijeka Prediction & Betting Tips 22.04.2026

NK Varaždin and HNK Rijeka meet on Wednesday evening in the HNL with the two sides separated by just two points and locked together in the upper half of the table. Varaždin are third on 44 points, Rijeka sit fourth on 42, and this feels like a proper six-pointer in the race for the best possible finish outside the title conversation. For both clubs, the margin for error is tiny. A win here changes the mood around the run-in. A defeat does the opposite.

There’s a little more edge to it because both teams have mixed consistency with genuine quality. Varaždin have been stubborn at home all season and arrive with confidence after winning away at Osijek, while Rijeka have shown flashes of class on the road but have also dropped too many points for a side chasing the top spots. The first meeting this season ended 3-1 to Rijeka in February, but Varaždin have already beaten them twice in this league campaign. That alone should keep things honest.

NK Varaždin Form & Analysis

Varaždin come into this one in decent shape, and the manner of their recent results matters as much as the results themselves. They were not flattered by the 2-0 win at Osijek on 17 April. That was a proper away performance, built on control and sharp finishing. Before that, they beat Slaven Belupo 2-1 at home, shared a 1-1 draw with Gorica, and earlier still went down 2-1 at Istra. Go back a little further and there’s another home win over Vukovar 1991, plus a draw away at Lokomotiva. That’s a useful little stretch. Not perfect, but solid, and the sort of sequence that keeps a team sitting near the top end of the table.

The home record is exactly why Varaždin can approach this with belief rather than caution. At their ground they’ve collected 26 points from 15 matches, with seven wins, five draws and only three defeats. They’ve scored 22 and conceded 20 there, so it isn’t fortress football, but it’s certainly competitive. They score enough to stay in games, and they don’t usually collapse. Fourteen goals in their last six league matches overall tells you they’ve got some punch too. That said, the defensive numbers are not clean enough to trust them to shut everyone out. Twenty goals conceded at home is fine, not excellent.

What stands out most is how often they’ve found a way to get in front. Their run of first goals in matches has been a feature, and it’s not hard to see why. They’ve got energy, they move the ball quickly enough, and they’ve been direct when the moment calls for it. The Osijek win was a good example: xG of 1.52, four big chances and eight shots on target. That’s not a smash-and-grab. It was a proper attacking display. But they’re not a side that dominates every week, and when the game gets scrappy, they’re still vulnerable to pressure around their box. Rijeka will fancy their chances of landing a few punches.

HNK Rijeka Form & Analysis

Rijeka’s recent run has been a strange one, full of extremes. They were beaten 2-0 at home by Osijek on 12 April, which was a flat result and a poor attacking display. Before that, they beat Slaven Belupo 2-0 in the cup, then produced a neat 2-0 league win away at the same opponent. But the 4-0 loss at Gorica still hangs over this run, because that was a proper setback, not a narrow off day. Then came the 2-2 draw at Dinamo Zagreb, and that at least gave them some response. They were under pressure for long spells there, yet still came away with a point. That helps, but it doesn’t erase the inconsistency.

Their overall away record explains why they’ve been a little frustrating. Rijeka have taken 17 points from 15 away matches, with four wins, five draws and six defeats. They’ve scored 17 and conceded 20 on the road. That’s not hopeless, but it’s not the profile of a side you’d trust blindly away from home either. They can keep games tight, though, and that’s where they remain dangerous. When Rijeka settle into a match, they’re compact and capable of nicking moments. The problem is that they don’t always settle quickly enough. Can they start fast here? That’s the real question.

The Dinamo draw was a reminder of their resilience, even if it came with a caveat. Rijeka barely had the ball, finishing with an xG of just 0.19, yet they still found two goals through Dion Drena Beljo and Tiago Dantas, including two penalties. That sort of result can fool people. It wasn’t a broad attacking masterclass. It was opportunism, a bit of chaos, and a hard-fought survival job after Ante Oreč’s second yellow left them under even more strain. Mind you, there’s value in that too. Teams that can scratch out points in ugly away matches usually stay around the top end. They just need more games where they control the script a little better.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has already produced a few sharp swings this season. Rijeka won the most recent meeting 3-1 at home in February, but Varaždin have had the better of the exchanges overall in this league campaign. They beat Rijeka 1-0 in Varaždin in November, then won 2-1 away in August. Earlier in 2025, Rijeka edged a 1-0 win, but that’s one of only a few clean successes they’ve managed in this matchup over the longer run.

The pattern is clear enough. Varaždin have often made this awkward for Rijeka, and the games have tended to stay competitive rather than blow apart. There’s been a fair amount of tension and not much room between them. That fits the table, and it fits Wednesday night too.

We Predict: Both Teams To Score

We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 5/6 here, and it looks a fair price for a match that should have goals at both ends. Varaždin have scored in each of their last three league games and have been getting chances at home all season. Rijeka have the quality to land a blow too, even when they’re not playing well. Their away record isn’t sparkling, but they’ve still scored 17 on the road and they’ve found the net in tough spots before.

The cleanest read is a 1-1 draw. Varaždin’s home edge should keep them in the contest, while Rijeka’s need to respond after a patchy spell makes it hard to imagine them going quietly. Both sides have shown enough defensive weakness to leave the door open, and both have enough attacking threat to walk through it. If you wanted a small alternative, the draw also appeals, but BTTS is the stronger angle. This one feels like a game where each side gets a spell, each side scores, and neither quite does enough to take full control.