Nottingham Forest host Newcastle United at the City Ground on Sunday afternoon, 10 May 2026, with both clubs trying to finish a bruising Premier League season on something a bit more respectable. Forest sit 16th on 42 points, Newcastle are 13th on 45, and while neither side is staring at the abyss, neither can call this a comfortable campaign either. There’s still pride at stake, still a need to bank points, and still a little pressure from the sides below.
For Vitor Pereira’s Forest, this is about steadying the ship after a huge European week. They were beaten 4-0 away to Aston Villa in the Europa League knockout stage on 7 May, but that came after they’d beaten Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge in the league and seen off Villa 1-0 at home in Europe. Newcastle, managed by Eddie Howe, arrive off a 3-1 home win over Brighton on 2 May, but their league form away from home remains patchy. They’ve lost plenty on the road, and that makes this trip awkward. Very awkward.
The broader context matters too. Forest have had the more memorable continental run in recent weeks, winning through a sequence that included a 1-0 home success against FC Porto, a 4-1 league win over Burnley, that eye-catching 5-0 romp at Sunderland, and the 3-1 triumph at Chelsea before the Villa setback. Newcastle’s spring has been rougher, even if the Brighton result offered a lift. They were knocked around by Arsenal, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Sunderland before that, and the Champions League exit to Barcelona has left its mark. There’s no shortage of pressure here. Just a different kind of it.
Nottingham Forest Form & Analysis
Forest’s recent run has been a strange mix of high points and hard lessons, but the big picture is clear enough: they’ve been scoring, winning and generally finding ways to hurt teams. The 4-0 defeat at Aston Villa in the Europa League was a reality check, and a fairly brutal one. Before that, though, they’d gone to Chelsea and won 3-1, and before that they’d edged Aston Villa 1-0 at home in Europe. Go back a little further and the picture gets even brighter — a 5-0 win at Sunderland, a 4-1 home victory over Burnley, and that 1-0 European win over FC Porto. That’s five wins from their last six before the Villa loss. You can’t ignore that.
At the City Ground, Forest’s league record is a little more ordinary than their recent surge might suggest: four wins, six draws and seven defeats, with 18 goals scored and 21 conceded. That tells its own story. They’ve not been a fortress, but they’ve been awkward enough, and they’re not often getting blown away on their own pitch. The goals are there too — 18 at home in the league is hardly elite, yet it’s enough to keep them in games. The problem has been consistency. One week they look sharp and aggressive; the next, they’re vulnerable when the game gets stretched. That Villa defeat away in Europe showed exactly how ugly things can become if they’re forced to chase.
Still, Forest look better when the tempo rises and the game becomes open. They’ve scored 44 league goals in total and conceded 46, which is the profile of a side that lives on fine margins rather than control. xG-wise, the 0.62 they managed at Villa compared with 1.72 against suggests they were second best from the start, but the stronger home showings tell you they’re more dangerous when they get on the front foot. Against Newcastle, they’ll feel they can create chances. Can they keep the defensive line together? That’s the real question.
Newcastle United Form & Analysis
Newcastle’s recent form has been all over the place, and the odd thing is that the good performance came just when they needed a breather. The 3-1 win over Brighton on 2 May was lively and convincing enough, with William Osula scoring early, Dan Burn doubling the lead and Harvey Barnes sealing it in stoppage time. The numbers from that game were healthy too: 3.15 xG, 13 shots, six on target, five big chances. That was a proper attacking display. But it came on the heels of a string of setbacks — a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal, a 2-1 home loss to Bournemouth, a 2-1 reverse at Crystal Palace, a damaging 2-1 home defeat to Sunderland and that heavy 7-2 loss at Barcelona in the Champions League knockout stage.
That’s not the sort of form line that inspires confidence on the road. Newcastle’s away record in the league is only 4-4-9, with 16 goals scored and 22 conceded. They’ve been able to nick the odd result, but they’ve spent too much of the season chasing games and too little of it controlling them. Forty-five points from 29 matches still leaves them in a fairly anonymous mid-table position, and the 49 goals scored against 51 conceded sums them up well enough: open, vulnerable, capable, but not trustworthy. That’s a tough combination for a side travelling to a ground where the home team has just rediscovered some punch.
The Brighton win does give them a route into this match, of course. If they can reproduce the edge they showed going forward, they’ll ask questions of Forest. Mind you, their defensive habit of conceding on the road is hard to overlook, and they’ve now gone through plenty of matches without a clean sheet. That matters here. Forest aren’t the kind of side you want to let grow into the game. Give them space, and they’ll take it.
Head-to-Head
This fixture has a recent history of goals and Newcastle dominance. Forest haven’t beaten them in the last eight meetings listed here, and that alone colours the mood going into Sunday. Newcastle won 2-0 at home in October 2025, edged a mad 4-3 game at St James’ Park in February 2025, and beat Forest 3-1 at the City Ground in November 2024. There was also that mad EFL Cup tie in August 2024, which Newcastle won 5-4. It hasn’t exactly been a quiet series.
The pattern is obvious enough. Newcastle tend to get the better of this match-up, and it’s rarely short on drama. Forest have been on the receiving end often enough to make this a psychological edge as much as a tactical one. Six of the last seven meetings have seen both teams score, too, which is the sort of trend punters won’t ignore.
We Predict: Double Chance 1X
We’re backing Double Chance 1X at 8/15 here. Our BTTS tips page is a useful companion here because it pulls together BTTS tips with more both-teams-to-score angles across the schedule. Forest at home aren’t perfect, but they’ve been lively enough to avoid defeat in plenty of these spots, and their recent burst of wins has been stronger than Newcastle’s messy away pattern. The visitors have won just four league games on the road, and they’ve conceded 22 in 17 away matches. That’s not a profile that screams control on Sunday afternoon.
The 2-1 call fits nicely. Forest’s home games have tended to be open enough for chances at both ends, and Newcastle’s recent away outings have rarely been tidy. Forest have the edge in momentum, Newcastle have the edge in the head-to-head, and the compromise is a home side that avoids defeat but probably still has to fight for it. If you want a slightly more aggressive angle, Both Teams to Score has plenty of appeal too, but 1X is the safer play.
