Match form loads a moment after the page opens so the main prediction can appear first; recent results are fetched right after.
Queens Park Rangers host Derby County at Loftus Road on Saturday evening, 25 April 2026, in a Championship meeting that matters to both clubs for very different reasons. QPR are sitting 13th with 58 points, safely away from real trouble but short of anything more ambitious, while Derby arrive in 8th on 66 points and very much in the mix for a push into the play-off places. That gap in the table gives this one a proper edge. Derby need points to keep the chase alive. QPR need a response after a run that’s gone a bit flat.
There’s also the matter of what this fixture has produced before. These sides have shared some tight, stop-start Championship contests in recent seasons, and there’s no reason to expect a clean, one-sided afternoon here. QPR’s home record has been decent without being brilliant, Derby’s away numbers are solid enough to keep them competitive, and both teams come in with enough attacking output to suggest goals aren’t out of the question. The market is leaning the same way, and so are we.
Julien Stéphan’s side are trying to recover from a disappointing week. The 2-1 home defeat to Swansea City on 21 April was the latest frustration, and it followed a 2-0 loss at Millwall. Before that, there was a 0-0 draw with Bristol City at Loftus Road and a 1-1 draw at Preston North End, so the pattern is obvious enough: QPR have become harder to beat than they were earlier in the spring, but they’re not turning good positions into wins. Their last victory came against Watford on 3 April, and since then the momentum’s gone missing. That’s four games without a win now. It’s a dry spell, not a collapse. Still, it’s not the kind of rhythm you want heading into a game against a top-half opponent.
The home numbers are respectable and probably explain why QPR are still hovering around mid-table rather than slipping backwards. At Loftus Road they’ve taken 33 points from 22 games, with 10 wins, three draws and nine defeats. They’ve scored 38 and conceded 34 at home, which is pretty much the story of their season in one line: enough going forward to keep them alive, not enough control to shut games down. They’ve been open, sometimes a bit too open, and that’s why their home matches often feel live for both teams. A 6-1 thrashing of Portsmouth on 21 March showed the attacking ceiling, but the recent run has been shakier. Swansea got enough chances to nick the latest one, and QPR’s back line didn’t quite hold up when it mattered.
The bigger issue is that they’ve lost the edge they had in the first half of April. The Watford win feels like a while ago now. Since then, the draws with Preston and Bristol City have been followed by defeats to Millwall and Swansea, and those scorelines fit the same theme: QPR can create, but they’re giving opponents too many chances to stay in the game. Against Swansea, they posted 1.56 xG and still lost, which tells you there was more attacking threat than the result suggested. It wasn’t a lifeless performance. It was just another night where the final say belonged to the other side.
Julien Stéphan’s side are still capable of having a proper spell in a match. They scored twice against Watford, six against Portsmouth, and even in defeat to Swansea they found the net early through Ronald before coming up short late on. That’s the best version of this team: front-foot, quick to commit numbers, and willing to turn a home match into a bit of a scrap. But they’re paying for that ambition. The 67 goals conceded overall is a warning sign, and the recent trend hasn’t done much to calm it.
There’s a sense that QPR are floating rather than pushing. Their season total of 58 points leaves them well adrift of the play-off picture and not in danger either. The middle ground can be awkward. You can see that in the results. They’ve drawn enough games to stay steady, but not enough to build real momentum. Against a Derby side that tends to find a goal on the road, that leaves them in a dangerous zone. You’d expect them to score. You’d also expect them to give something away. That’s the problem.
Derby County arrive in better shape in the table and with a real incentive to keep going. John Eustace’s side are 8th on 66 points, and while they’ve still got work to do, they’re much closer to the places that matter. Their recent form hasn’t been flawless, though. The 2-1 loss at Norwich City on 21 April was another reminder that they’re not quite as settled away from home as they are at Pride Park, and the pattern before that was clear enough: win at home, lose away, repeat. Oxford United were beaten 1-0 on 18 April, then Southampton edged them 2-1 at St Mary’s on 11 April, Stoke City were swept aside 2-0 at home on 6 April, and Coventry beat them 3-2 away three days earlier. It’s a pretty familiar split. Derby can hurt teams, but the road still asks tougher questions of them.
That away record is decent, not dominant. They’ve collected 30 points from 22 away games, with nine wins, three draws and 10 defeats, scoring 33 and conceding 30. Those are respectable numbers, and they explain why they’re still in contention. They’re not a side that folds on the road. But they’re also not one that controls games away from home for long periods. The goals tend to come both ways. Their last trip to Norwich ended 2-1 in defeat after Mohamed Touré had them level, and even in that game Derby were competitive enough to create 1.20 xG and post eight shots on target. That’s not the profile of a team running scared.
Eustace’s side have a clear habit: they respond well after setbacks, especially at home. The 1-0 win over Oxford United followed a disappointing defeat at Southampton, and the 2-0 success against Stoke came after the narrow loss at Coventry. That’s why they’re still around the upper reaches of the table. They don’t drift for long. They reset. Mind you, away from home the clean sheets dry up and the margins get tighter. Against Norwich, they had enough threat to ask questions, but not enough control to protect themselves when the game opened up.
There’s also a bit of a pattern in how Derby start games. They’ve been first to score in five of their last seven, and that matters in a match like this. If they get in front at Loftus Road, QPR will have to chase the game — and that’s where the contest gets messy. The visitors have scored 63 league goals overall and conceded 55, so they’re rarely dull. They’ve got enough punch to hurt a shaky home defence, but they’re not immune at the back either. That balance is why this feels like a proper BTTS game rather than a tight, cagey one.
Recent meetings between these clubs lean towards tension rather than fireworks, though there’s been the odd outlier. Derby won 1-0 at home in October 2025, which followed QPR’s 4-0 home win in February 2025. Before that, Derby also won 2-0 in October 2024. Go a little further back and it gets even tighter, with QPR edging a 1-0 win in April 2022 and winning 2-1 at Derby in November 2021.
One thing stands out from that run of meetings: the scorelines often stay modest. Five of the last seven have gone under 2.5 goals, and that matters when you’re weighing up the likely shape of this one. There’s enough attacking threat on both sides to keep it lively, but history says these matches don’t always explode. They’re usually decided by small moments.
We’re backing Both Teams To Score at 8/13. That feels like the strongest play here. QPR have been habitually leaky at home, Derby have scored in most of their recent games away, and neither side comes into this with much evidence of a controlled 90-minute shutout. The projected numbers point the same way too, with QPR at 1.1 xG and Derby at 1.3. That’s enough for both attacks to get a look-in.
A 1-1 draw looks the likeliest scoreline. It suits the way these teams have been trending: QPR are drawing life out of games without winning enough of them, while Derby have enough quality to nick an away goal but not enough certainty to run away with it. If you want a second angle, under 3.5 goals fits the historical meeting patterns and the general feel of the matchup. But BTTS is the cleaner call.
League and venue; tap a row for the match page.
League
Range
Venue
No matches for these filters.
No matches for these filters.
Percentages from finished games after filters (1X2, goals, BTTS).
League
Range
Venue
