SSV Ulm 1846 host Rot-Weiss Essen in the 3. Liga on Saturday afternoon, 16 May 2026, and the league table gives this one a sharp edge. Ulm sit 18th with 33 points and are fighting simply to keep their heads above water, while Essen are up in 4th on 67 points and still chasing every inch of promotion momentum they can squeeze out of the run-in. The pressure is very different on each side. Ulm need a result to steady a season that’s been slipping for months. Essen need to keep their sharpness and their place among the front-runners.
There’s also a clear contrast in trajectory. Pavel Dotchev’s side have spent most of the campaign chasing games rather than controlling them, and their home record is a big reason why they’re in trouble. Uwe Koschinat’s Essen, on the other hand, have carried far more threat away from home than most sides in this division. They’re 5th in the away table with 36 goals scored on the road, and that kind of punch usually travels well. This should be open. It probably won’t be tidy.
The recent meeting in December also adds a bit of spice. Essen won 3-2 in that one, and the pair have had a habit of finding goals when they meet. With both teams coming in off very different final stretches, the shape of the match feels pretty clear: Ulm will need to compete on energy and urgency, while Essen will back themselves to land the cleaner punches.
SSV Ulm 1846 Form & Analysis
Ulm’s last few games have had that familiar late-season feel — a bit of fight, a bit of frustration, and not quite enough control. They drew 1-1 away at VfL Osnabrück on 9 May, with Dennis Chessa and Lars Kehl on the scoresheet, and that was at least a point earned in a game where they matched the hosts in shots and actually produced decent attacking numbers. Before that, though, they were beaten 2-0 at home by FC Viktoria Köln, a result that summed up their problem. Plenty of effort, not much reward.
Go back a little further and you see the rollercoaster. Ulm lost 3-2 away at TSV 1860 München after scoring twice, which tells you they can hurt teams but can’t always hold their shape when the game turns wild. They did beat TSV Havelse 2-1 at home in mid-April, and that remains their last win. Since then, the pattern’s been bleak enough: no wins in three, and just one victory from their last six. They’ve also gone six games without a clean sheet, which is a serious issue for a side sitting 18th.
The home numbers are hard to ignore. Ulm’s record at their own ground is 19th in the division, with only six wins from 18 home matches, plus one draw and 11 defeats. They’ve scored 22 and conceded 34 there, which is no foundation at all for a side trying to climb away from danger. The positives are thin, but they do exist: they can still score, and their last two home games before this one produced goals at both ends in different ways. The problem is that their defensive line keeps giving opponents too much.
Rot-Weiss Essen Form & Analysis
Essen arrive with much better overall credentials, but their recent form has been a bit lurching rather than serene. They beat SC Verl 1-0 at home on 9 May, and that was a proper response after the nasty 6-1 collapse away to VfB Stuttgart II U21 a week earlier. That result still hangs over their run-in because it was so extreme — one of those defeats that makes every subsequent performance feel like a test of character. Still, they passed the next one. A clean-sheet win is a clean-sheet win.
The broader picture is more positive than the last six results might first suggest. Essen have collected 19 wins across the season and sit comfortably in the top four, with 75 goals scored and 64 conceded. That’s a side with attacking ambition and enough resilience to keep their promotion push alive. Their away record is especially healthy: 7 wins, 6 draws and only 5 defeats from 18 matches, with 36 goals scored. That’s not the record of a timid travelling team. They go looking for games.
Mind you, the defensive record on the road isn’t pristine. Essen have conceded 42 away goals, so they’re not the sort to shut things down and coast. They’re better when the match opens up, and they’ve got the kind of forward momentum that can punish a fragile back line. Their recent away outings underlined that point in brutal fashion: the 6-1 loss at Stuttgart II U21 was ugly, but before that they’d scored three at Schweinfurt and three in a defeat at Energie Cottbus. They’re dangerous, but they’re never entirely secure. That’s the trade-off.
Head-to-Head
These two have already given us a decent sample of what happens when they meet. Essen won the most recent clash 3-2 at home on 20 December 2025, and that followed Ulm’s 2-0 away win in February 2024 and a 2-1 Ulm victory in September 2023. So the recent head-to-head has gone Ulm’s way on the whole, but the latest meeting flipped that and opened things up again.
One pattern stands out more than the rest: goals. Three straight meetings have gone by without Essen keeping a clean sheet against Ulm, and the December game was the clearest sign yet that these sides can trade blows. If you’re looking for a compact historical angle, that’s the one. This fixture hasn’t been shy.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score at 4/9 is the pick here, and it’s the strongest way into this game. Ulm have gone six matches without a clean sheet, Essen have the better attacking profile away from home, and the recent head-to-heads have usually had both sides involved. Put that together and BTTS looks far more natural than trying to call a clean win either way. 1-2 to Rot-Weiss Essen feels about right.
There is a little tension in Ulm’s favour because they did hold Osnabrück to 1-1 away last time out, so they’re not completely shut out of matches. But Essen’s away scoring record is stronger, and their habit of striking first on the road gives them a real edge. If you wanted a slightly more aggressive angle, Essen to win and both teams to score would have plenty of appeal.
