VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips 23.04.2026

VfB Stuttgart host SC Freiburg on Thursday evening, 23 April 2026, with a place in the DFB Pokal final on the line. That alone gives this tie a proper edge. Cup football strips away the table and the baggage of a league season; one good night and you’re a step away from silverware, one bad one and the spring ends in disappointment. For Sebastian Hoeneß’s Stuttgart, this is a chance to turn an inconsistent run into something memorable. For Julian Schuster’s Freiburg, it’s an opportunity to carry on the kind of run that’s made them a difficult side to pin down in recent weeks.

There’s also a very familiar feel to this fixture. These two know each other well enough to be wary, but not so well that either side can settle into a pattern. Stuttgart won the last meeting 1-0 at home on 1 February 2026, while Freiburg have already landed blows of their own in this rivalry over the last couple of seasons. The knockout context changes everything. That said, both teams arrive with enough attacking form to suggest we won’t be sitting through a cagey slog.

Stuttgart’s numbers in particular point towards a game with goals. Their recent league and European outings have been lively, sometimes wildly so, and they’re not the sort of side that shut things down for long. Freiburg aren’t exactly built for a low-tempo evening either. They’ve been scoring regularly, they’ve been winning regularly, and they’ve shown enough attacking sharpness to make Stuttgart’s back line work hard. That’s why this quarter-final has the feel of a match where one clean sheet would be a surprise.

VfB Stuttgart Form & Analysis

Stuttgart’s last six have been a proper rollercoaster. They went to Bayern Munich on 19 April and came away on the wrong end of a 4-2 defeat, but even that result had the sort of chaos that can keep a cup tie alive — they scored twice, landed 11 shots, and spent long stretches in a game that was open to the point of recklessness. Before that, they had been far more convincing at home, brushing aside Hamburger SV 4-0 on 12 April and then dismantling RB Leipzig 1-0 the week before that. Sandwiched in between was the 2-0 home loss to Borussia Dortmund, which again showed the same pattern: Stuttgart can look sharp going forward, but if the defensive line gets stretched, they’re exposed.

The away win at Augsburg on 22 March, a 5-2 shootout, fits the same picture. Stuttgart don’t do dull very often. They can overwhelm teams when their attacking rhythm clicks, and when they’re front-foot and confident, they’ve got enough quality to score in bursts. The flip side is obvious. Bayern cut them apart far too easily, and the 2-0 loss at Porto in the Europa League knockout stage was another reminder that once opponents raise the tempo and attack the space behind them, Stuttgart can wobble. Hoeneß will know that Freiburg won’t need much encouragement.

At home, Stuttgart’s season record is solid enough to make them dangerous in a cup tie. They’ve won six, drawn four and lost five at this ground, scoring 23 and conceding 22. That’s not the record of a side that steamrolls opponents, but it is the mark of a team that almost always brings a game to life. They’ve found the net freely enough in front of their own fans, and the issue has been on the other side of the ball. You can’t ignore that. Not in a knockout game, not against a side in good form, and certainly not against opponents who’ve scored in bunches away from home.

The numbers from the Bayern loss only sharpen that concern. Stuttgart’s xG of 1.18 was respectable, but their xGA of 4.33 was brutal. Bayern had 28 shots, nine on target and eight big chances. That’s a bad sign for any defence, and Freiburg will take a close look at how easily Stuttgart were opened up. Still, Stuttgart’s own attacking output has been steady enough to keep them in the conversation for a result here. If they can get the first goal, they’ll fancy a proper punch-up. If they don’t, they may have to chase the game. That would suit Freiburg far more.

SC Freiburg Form & Analysis

Freiburg come into this with a very different mood around them. Their last six have brought five wins and only one defeat, and the defeat itself — a 3-2 home loss to Bayern on 4 April — was hardly a collapse. Since then they’ve beaten Celta Vigo twice in Europe, won at Mainz, and edged Heidenheim 2-1 at home on 19 April. That’s a tidy run, and more than that, it’s a run that shows they can win in different ways. Tight away from home, more expansive at home, and still dangerous in knockout football. They’ve kept going.

What stands out is how composed they’ve been on the road. The 3-1 win at Celta Vigo on 16 April followed a 1-0 league victory at Mainz and a 2-1 win at St. Pauli on 22 March. That’s three away wins on the spin, and Freiburg haven’t been scraping through by luck. They’re finding enough control to stay in games, enough attacking quality to punish mistakes, and enough belief to finish the job. Can they keep that up in Stuttgart? That’s the question. On current evidence, yes — and they won’t be overawed by the occasion.

Their away record this season is strong: seven wins, four draws and four defeats, with 25 goals scored and 19 conceded. That’s a healthy return, especially for a cup tie at a venue where the home side likes to open up the pitch. Freiburg don’t travel like a team hoping for damage limitation. They’ve scored regularly away from home, they’re averaging decent shot numbers on the road, and they’ve been productive in the final third all season. Even when Bayern beat them 3-2 at home, Freiburg still found the net twice. They don’t go quietly.

The Heidenheim win summed them up well. Freiburg weren’t flawless — the xG was 1.62 to 1.58, so it was fairly tight — but they kept their nerve and found the decisive goal late on through Maximilian Eggestein. That sort of resilience matters in cup football. Julian Schuster’s side look like a team with enough craft to hurt Stuttgart if they leave space, and enough control to avoid being swept away by the occasion. They’re not perfect. Their defending can still be tested. But they’ve done enough lately to suggest they’ll get chances, and if they do, they usually take at least one.

Head-to-Head

This fixture has produced goals and swings in momentum for a while now, even if Stuttgart edged the most recent meeting 1-0 in February. Before that, Freiburg won 3-1 at home in September 2025, but Stuttgart had been ruthless in a few earlier encounters, including a 4-0 home win in January 2025 and a 5-0 hammering in August 2023. That’s the main theme here: one side tends to take control of the game, and once the scoring starts, it usually doesn’t stop quickly.

There’s also a clear pattern of both teams finding routes to goal across the recent meetings. Freiburg haven’t kept Stuttgart out very often, and Stuttgart have repeatedly shown they can hurt Freiburg when the game opens up. This isn’t the sort of derby where you expect caution to rule the night. Far from it.

We Predict: Over 2.5 Goals

We’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 4/6 for this quarter-final, and it feels like the strongest angle on the board. Stuttgart’s home matches have the habit of turning into end-to-end affairs, Freiburg have been scoring with real regularity on the road, and the head-to-head history points the same way. Six of the last seven meetings have gone over this line. That’s not a fluke. It’s the shape of the matchup.

The projected scoreline of 1-2 fits the way both teams are playing. Freiburg have looked the more reliable side lately, especially away from home, while Stuttgart’s defensive record has too many gaps in it to trust against a confident opponent. Still, Stuttgart are almost certain to create something of their own — they usually do — which is why this has the feel of a cup tie with both teams landing a punch. If you want a slightly safer alternative, Freiburg draw no bet would be the route to consider, but the goals market is the cleaner play.