Union Berlin host second-placed Borussia Dortmund at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei on Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2026, in a Bundesliga clash that pits ninth against the title chasers. Steffen Baumgart's side sit on 24 points from 18 matches, while Niko Kovač's Dortmund occupy second with 39 points and just one league defeat all season. The visitors arrive as clear favorites, having won their last two meetings 3-0 and 6-0, though home advantage could prove crucial for Union.
Union Berlin enter this fixture riding a three-match unbeaten streak that has steadied their campaign under Baumgart. They beat Cologne 1-0 before drawing 2-2 with Mainz and 1-1 with both Augsburg and Stuttgart on Sunday. The capital club has found their defensive organization under their former player turned manager, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game over their last ten fixtures while scoring 1.3. Ilyas Ansah leads their attack with six goals this season, while midfielder Andrej Ilić has contributed seven assists.
Dortmund bounced back from a midweek 2-0 Champions League defeat to Tottenham with a hard-fought 3-2 home victory over St. Pauli on Saturday. Before that loss in London, they had defeated Werder Bremen 3-0, extending an impressive domestic run that includes 11 wins and six draws. Kovač, who took charge in late January 2025, has transformed Dortmund into genuine title contenders. Serhou Guirassy leads their attack with 15 goals across all competitions, while Julian Brandt has struck 11 times and Karim Adeyemi has added nine.
Union Berlin have won two of their last six home Bundesliga matches, drawing three and losing one while scoring 11 and conceding eight. Dortmund's away form shows two wins, three draws, and one defeat from their last six on the road, with nine goals scored and eight conceded. The head-to-head record heavily favors the visitors, who have won 11 of 16 meetings compared to Union's four victories.
My model backs both teams to score at 3/4 odds (1.75 decimal), giving this outcome a 60.89% probability. I predict a 1-1 draw with expected goals of 1.45 for Union and 1.51 for Dortmund. Both sides have scored in seven of their last ten head-to-head encounters, suggesting goals at both ends. The tight xG projection reinforces confidence in a competitive match where Union's home resilience meets Dortmund's attacking quality.