AEK Athens host NK Celje at the OPAP Arena on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Conference League knockout tie. AEK lead 4–0 from the first leg in Slovenia and are heavy favourites to progress. Celje must score at least four times to force extra time. AEK are level with PAOK and Olympiacos at the top of the Greek Super League, while Celje lead the Slovenian PrvaLiga with 53 points.
AEK drew 2–2 at Atromitos last Sunday in the Super League. They trailed at half-time, led 2–1 with two goals in six minutes early in the second half, then conceded an equaliser from a corner in the 71st minute. AEK hit the post in stoppage time and stayed level on points with the league leaders. Marko Nikolić’s side have won three of their last five and are unbeaten in five, including a 4–0 win at Celje in the first leg and 1–0 at home to AEL. AEK have scored in each of their last five matches and have lost once in their last 13 European games.
Celje won 1–0 at Koper last Sunday in the PrvaLiga. They scored in the 19th minute and held on to stay top with 53 points from 26 games. Vítor Campelos, appointed on 13 March, oversaw the win that ended a three-match losing run. Celje had lost 0–4 at home to AEK in the first leg, 1–2 at Aluminij Kidričevo and 0–1 at Bravo. They had won 3–2 at home to Drita in the Conference League on 26 February before that run. Celje have scored in three of their last five matches but have conceded four in each of their last two Conference League games.
The sides met in the group stage in October, when Celje won 3–1 at home. AEK won the first leg 4–0 at Stadion Z’dežele, scoring in the third minute and adding three more before the 50th. AEK had 20 shots and 11 on target; Celje had eight shots and one on target despite 59% possession.
My prediction is Home Win -1.5 AH at 1.75. AEK won 4–0 away and have a 2.71 xG advantage at home over Celje’s 0.74 away. Celje lost three in a row before Koper and conceded four in the first leg. AEK have hit the post and created late chances in their last two league games, and their 4–0 first-leg margin points to another clear win. The xG projection (2.71–0.74) supports a 3–0 finish.