AEK Larnaca host Crystal Palace at the AEK Arena on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Conference League knockout tie. The first leg at Selhurst Park finished 0–0, so the tie is level. AEK are second in the Cypriot First Division with 53 points; Palace are 14th in the Premier League with 39. AEK beat Palace 1–0 in the group stage in October, but Palace had most of the play in the first leg and are slight favourites to progress.
AEK won 2–0 at Ethnikos Achnas last Monday in the Cypriot First Division. The match was goalless at half-time before two goals in the last 20 minutes. Javi Rozada’s side have won three of their last five, including 3–0 at home to Akritas Chlorakas and the 0–0 draw at Palace in the first leg. They drew 1–1 at home to Olympiakos Nicosia and lost 1–2 at Omonia Aradippou. AEK have scored in four of their last five matches but failed to score in the first leg and had around 10 players unavailable through injury for that game.
Palace drew 0–0 at home to Leeds United last Sunday in the Premier League. Leeds missed a first-half penalty and had a player sent off before the break, but Palace could not capitalise and had a late goal ruled out for offside. Oliver Glasner’s team have drawn their last two matches 0–0, including the first leg at home to AEK. Before that they won 3–1 at Tottenham and 2–0 at home to Zrinjski Mostar in Europe. Palace had over 70% possession and 13 shots in the first leg but could not break down AEK’s five-man defence.
The sides met in the group stage in October, when AEK won 1–0 at home. The first leg at Selhurst Park ended 0–0, with Palace dominating possession and creating several chances. AEK defended in a compact block and limited Palace to few clear openings.
My prediction is BTTS – No at 1.83. The first leg finished 0–0 and both teams have struggled to score in this tie. AEK’s 0.65 xG at home is low, and Palace’s 1.10 away points to a narrow win rather than a high-scoring game. AEK kept a clean sheet in the first leg and Palace have kept two in their last three. The correct-score projection of 0–2 fits a Palace win with AEK failing to score. The xG projection (0.65–1.10) supports a 0–2 finish.