Arsenal host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at the Emirates on Tuesday evening in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie, with the aggregate score level at 1-1 after a draw in Germany last week. Mikel Arteta's side sit 10 points clear at the top of the Premier League and carry the home advantage into a winner-takes-all knockout fixture. Kasper Hjulmand's Leverkusen arrive needing a result to survive, with the Danish coach already facing scrutiny over his job security heading into this match.
Arsenal enter on the back of four wins from their last five across all competitions, including a 2-0 victory over Everton at home last Saturday that stretched their Premier League lead. Three of those four wins were kept clean sheets, and the Gunners have conceded just once in their last four games — the away goal Leverkusen earned in the first leg. That first-leg draw in Germany, where Arsenal came from behind to level through a late penalty, showed Arteta's team can absorb pressure and respond in big moments.
Leverkusen have not won in their last three Bundesliga matches, drawing all of them — including a 1-1 home result against Bayern Munich last Saturday despite playing against nine men for much of the second half. Their only Bundesliga win since late February came on March 4 at Hamburg. In European competition, Hjulmand's side have drawn their last two games and have scored just once across those 180 minutes. That lack of cutting edge in front of goal is a recurring theme in their recent run.
These two clubs have met only twice in the Champions League before this season, both in the 2001-02 second group stage. Arsenal won 4-1 at Highbury in the return fixture after a 1-1 draw away, a result that mirrors the current tie almost exactly. In that campaign, Leverkusen went on to reach the final despite the defeat, but Arsenal were eliminated — adding a layer of historical tension to this rematch 24 years later.
My prediction is Under 3.5 Goals at 1.57. Arsenal's defensive record over the past month makes a high-scoring night unlikely, and Leverkusen have managed just one goal in their last two Champions League outings. With the tie finely balanced and both sides likely to be cautious early, a controlled, low-scoring contest is the most probable outcome. The xG projection (1.47–0.87) supports a 2-0 finish.