AS Monaco host Juventus on Wednesday evening, January 28, 2026, in a crucial UEFA Champions League clash at the Stade Louis II. The hosts sit tenth in Ligue 1 with a defensive crisis mounting, while the Italian visitors occupy fifth in Serie A and arrive with momentum from a 3-0 victory over Napoli. Juventus enter as favorites, but Monaco will look to exploit home advantage despite their injury woes.
Sébastien Pocognoli's Monaco have struggled for consistency, collecting just one win from their last five games across all competitions. A 6-1 hammering by Real Madrid on January 20 exposed their defensive fragility, and things worsened on Saturday with a goalless draw against Le Havre despite creating numerous chances. Wout Faes and Eric Dier both suffered injuries in that match, joining Mohammed Salisu on the sidelines and forcing Jordan Teze into an unfamiliar center-back role alongside Thilo Kehrer. Folarin Balogun and Ansu Fati will carry the attacking burden, though their conversion rate has been inconsistent.
Luciano Spalletti has rejuvenated Juventus since replacing Igor Tudor, steering them to three wins in their last five matches. The Bianconeri dispatched Cremonese 5-0 on January 12 before beating Benfica 2-0 in European competition on January 21. Jonathan David, Kenan Yildiz, and Filip Kostic scored in the convincing triumph over Napoli on Sunday, showcasing the attacking depth available despite Dusan Vlahovic's absence. Andrea Cambiaso and Weston McKennie provide energy in midfield, while Gleison Bremer anchors a defense that has conceded just 17 goals in 22 Serie A matches.
Juventus have dominated this fixture historically, winning three of five meetings since 2009 while Monaco have yet to record a victory. The hosts scored just two goals across those encounters, highlighting the Italians' defensive superiority in this matchup.
My model backs Juventus to claim an away win at 120/100 (2.20 decimal) with a 47.42% probability. The predicted scoreline is 1-2, aligning with xG projections of 1.51 for Monaco and 1.95 for Juventus. The visitors have found the net in all five of their previous meetings with Monaco while keeping three clean sheets in that span.
