Aston Villa host Lille at Villa Park on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Europa League knockout tie. Villa lead 1–0 from the first leg in France and are favourites to progress. Lille must score at least once and win by two goals to go through without extra time. Villa are fourth in the Premier League and three points behind Manchester United in the race for Champions League qualification, while Lille sit mid-table in Ligue 1.
Villa lost 3–1 at Manchester United last Sunday in the Premier League. They trailed 1–0, equalised in the 64th minute, then conceded twice in the last 20 minutes. United moved three points clear of Villa in third. Unai Emery’s side have lost their last three league games, including 1–4 at home to Chelsea and 0–2 at Wolverhampton. Their last league win was 1–0 at home to Brighton on 11 February. Villa’s only win in their last five matches was 1–0 at Lille in the first leg. They have scored in four of their last five and have won eight of nine European matches this season.
Lille won 2–1 at Stade Rennais last Sunday in Ligue 1. They led 2–0 early in the second half before Rennes pulled one back in the 59th minute. Lille had 41% possession but higher expected goals and ended Rennes’ four-match winning streak. Bruno Genesio’s team have won three of their last five, including 1–0 at home to Nantes and 1–0 at Crvena zvezda in Europe. They lost 0–1 at home to Villa in the first leg and drew 1–1 at home to Lorient. Lille have scored in four of their last five and have won only one of their last four away games in the Europa League.
Villa won the first leg 1–0 at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, scoring in the 61st minute. Villa are unbeaten at Villa Park in Europe this season and have won their last five European matches.
My prediction is Home Win at 1.67. Villa have won eight of nine European games this season and are unbeaten at home in the competition. Lille have one away win in the Europa League this season and must attack, which should suit Villa on the break. Villa’s 1.66 xG at home is higher than Lille’s 1.00 away, and Villa’s league struggles are offset by strong European form. The xG projection (1.66–1.00) supports a 2–1 finish.
