Ernesto Valverde's Athletic Club host Eder Sarabia's Elche at San Mamés on Friday evening, with the hosts sitting ninth on 31 points and looking to push further up the table, while Elche sit just two places above the drop zone in 16th with 25 points. Athletic enter as clear favourites on home soil, but Elche have proven awkward opponents this season and will not be easy to break down.
Athletic head into this one with genuine momentum after back-to-back LaLiga victories. A 4-2 home win over Levante UD was followed by a composed 2-1 away victory at Real Oviedo, giving Valverde's side three wins in their last four league outings. Their Copa del Rey exit — a 1-0 home defeat to Real Sociedad at the semi-final stage — was a blow, but the league form tells a more encouraging story, particularly the attacking output of six goals across the last two LaLiga fixtures.
Elche arrive at San Mamés without a win in five matches across all competitions. Sarabia's men have managed just two draws in that run — a 2-2 stalemate with Sevilla and a goalless affair at home to Osasuna last week — sandwiched around defeats to Levante, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad. The Osasuna draw was especially telling: Elche had 68.7% possession and managed 15 shot attempts but could not convert, finishing with a share of the spoils having created the better opportunities. Away from home, they have not managed a single league win all season.
Across 12 competitive meetings since 2013, this fixture has produced a fairly balanced record — Athletic Club have claimed 4 wins, Elche 3, with 5 draws, including a 0-0 stalemate earlier this season when the sides met at Martínez Valero in October 2025. That game underlined Elche's ability to frustrate, though they faced Athletic without the pressure of a poor run behind them. With both teams having found the net regularly despite mixed results, the head-to-head also shows a pattern of open, active contests — 80% of the last five H2H meetings went over 2.5 goals.
My prediction is Both Teams to Score at 1.91. Athletic's last two LaLiga games have been high-scoring — 4-2 and 1-2 — and they average nearly 1.9 xG at home this season. Elche, despite their struggles, have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and rank 10th in the league for total goals scored with 31, comfortably above the hosts' 27. Sarabia's side tends to dominate possession even against stronger opponents, creating enough chances to threaten any backline. The xG projection (1.76–0.95) supports a 2-1 finish.
