Athletic Club welcome Real Sociedad to San Mamés on Sunday evening, 1 February, for the Basque Derby with the hosts in 13th place on 24 points while the visitors sit five positions higher in 8th on 27 points. Ernesto Valverde's side have endured a miserable run of four losses and one draw in their last five league games, turning what was a promising campaign into a relegation-zone worry. Pellegrino Matarazzo's Real Sociedad arrive with momentum after back-to-back league wins, making this derby even more unpredictable than usual.
Athletic's form has collapsed since December, with defeats to Sevilla (2-1), Mallorca (3-2), Espanyol (2-1) and Real Madrid (3-0) punctuated only by a 1-1 draw at Osasuna. The injury crisis runs deep: Nico Williams continues to struggle with a persistent hernia and adductor problems, while brother Iñaki Williams is sidelined with a triceps surae injury. Striker Gorka Guruzeta serves a suspension after his red card against Mallorca. Aymeric Laporte has returned to training and could feature, offering Valverde some defensive stability. Despite their league struggles, Athletic showed fight with a 3-2 comeback win over Atalanta in the Champions League.
Real Sociedad have found their feet under new manager Matarazzo, who took charge in December after Sergio Francisco's dismissal. The 3-1 home victory over Celta Vigo on 25 January showcased their attacking potential, with captain Mikel Oyarzabal scoring twice. January also brought a 2-1 win at Getafe and a battling 1-1 draw against Atlético Madrid. Takefusa Kubo's hamstring injury is a blow, ruling the Japanese winger out for at least a month. Centre-backs Igor Zubeldia and Nayef Aguerd remain doubtful with muscle problems, stretching the squad ahead of this fixture.
The Basque Derby always delivers tension regardless of league positions. In 68 all-time meetings, Real Sociedad hold a narrow advantage with 24 wins to Athletic's 23, with 21 draws completing the picture. Athletic won the reverse fixture 1-0 at San Mamés in November 2024, and they have claimed 11 victories in their last 18 home derbies against their neighbours. Recent head-to-head xG data shows tight margins: Athletic's 1.3 to Real Sociedad's 0.5 in that November meeting, though Real Sociedad triumphed 3-0 at home in September 2023.
I'm backing Both Teams To Score at 1.91. Athletic have conceded in nine of their last ten league games, while Real Sociedad have scored in seven of their last eight away matches. Athletic's home xG this season averages 1.52, and La Real have converted at 1.38 xG on the road under Matarazzo. The xG projection (1.49–1.43) supports a 1-1 finish.