Athletic Club welcomes Sporting CP to San Mamés on Wednesday evening, January 28, 2026, in a crucial UEFA Champions League league phase encounter. The Basque side sits 10th in La Liga with 24 points from 21 matches, while the Portuguese visitors hold second place in the Primeira Liga with 48 points from 19 games. Athletic Club, currently 23rd in the Champions League standings with 8 points, desperately needs a result to keep their knockout stage hopes alive, while Sporting CP (10th with 13 points) has already secured at least a play-off spot and still eyes a top-eight finish for automatic qualification.
Ernesto Valverde's Athletic Club has endured a turbulent January, winning just once in their last five matches across all competitions. The Lions fell 2-1 at Sevilla on Saturday after Robert Navarro's opener was overturned by second-half goals from Peque Fernández and Akor Adams. That defeat followed a thrilling 3-2 Champions League victory at Atalanta on January 21, a 3-2 home loss to Mallorca on January 17, a 4-3 cup triumph over Leonesa on January 13, and a humbling 5-0 semi-final loss to Barcelona on January 7. Injuries have ravaged the squad, with Iñaki Williams, Yuri Berchiche, Álex Berenguer, Aymeric Laporte, and Beñat Prados all sidelined. Despite the setbacks, Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams remain dangerous attacking threats when fit.
Rui Borges' Sporting CP arrives in better form but with similar injury concerns. The Leões have won three of their last five matches, including a 2-1 Champions League victory over Paris Saint-Germain on January 20. Luis Suárez's double secured a hard-fought 2-1 win at Arouca on Friday, following that PSG triumph and a 3-0 home win against Casa Pia on January 16. However, they suffered a 2-1 loss to Vitória Guimarães in the Allianz Cup semi-final on January 6 and drew 1-1 with Gil Vicente on January 3. Fotis Ioannidis, Eduardo Quaresma, Nuno Santos, Geovany Quenda, and Jerry St. Juste are all unavailable. Viktor Gyökeres and Francisco Trincão will be key to unlocking Athletic's defense.
Athletic Club and Sporting CP have met just three times previously, with the Portuguese side holding a 2-1 edge in victories. Their most recent clash saw Sporting win 3-0 in a July 2024 friendly. In their competitive meetings, they split a two-legged Europa League tie in April 2012, with Athletic winning 3-1 at home after losing 2-1 away.
My model backs Both Teams To Score at 62/100 (1.62 decimal), with a 62.46% win probability for this outcome. The correct score prediction is 1-1, supported by an xG projection of Athletic Club 1.45 and Sporting CP 1.61. Both teams have scored in all three of their previous meetings, and each side has found the net in four of their last five matches. The narrow xG gap of 0.16 reinforces confidence in a tight, attacking contest at San Mamés.