Atlético Madrid host Deportivo Alavés at the Metropolitano on **Sunday afternoon, January 18, 2026**, with Los Rojiblancos looking to strengthen their Champions League ambitions. Diego Simeone's side sit fourth in La Liga with 38 points from 19 matches, while Eduardo Coudet's Alavés languish in 16th place with just 19 points. Atlético are clear favorites after winning three of the last six meetings, though memories of Alavés's 2-0 victory in April 2024 still linger.
Atlético Madrid enter this fixture with mixed form, bouncing back from disappointment with a Copa del Rey triumph. On Tuesday, they edged past Deportivo La Coruña 1-0 in the cup thanks to Antoine Griezmann's goal, securing a quarter-final berth. That narrow win followed a 2-1 Super Cup semi-final defeat to Real Madrid on January 8 and a frustrating 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad on January 4. Earlier in December, Simeone's men showed their attacking prowess with a 3-0 demolition of Girona on December 21 and a 3-2 Copa victory over Atlético Baleares on December 17. Griezmann remains the key creative force, while the defensive unit has been solid despite missing Clement Lenglet and Nico González through injury.
Deportivo Alavés head to the capital riding a wave of confidence from their midweek Copa del Rey success. On Wednesday, they defeated Rayo Vallecano 2-0 to advance in the competition, a much-needed boost after recent league struggles. Before that, Coudet's side suffered a heavy 3-1 defeat at Villarreal on January 10, squandering an early lead. They managed a 1-1 home draw with Real Oviedo on January 4 but were thoroughly outplayed by Osasuna in a 3-0 loss on December 20. A 1-0 cup victory over Sevilla on December 17 provided brief respite. The visitors remain without suspended striker Lucas Boyé and injured Mariano Díaz, placing extra pressure on their attacking options.
Atlético Madrid have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters. The hosts won 2-1 at home in November 2024 and secured the same scoreline in October 2023. However, Alavés's 2-0 away victory in April 2024 proved they can trouble the capital club. The most recent meetings produced two draws, including a 1-1 stalemate in August 2025 and a goalless affair in May 2025.
My model backs Atlético Madrid and Over 1.5 Goals at 61/100 (1.61 decimal) with a 61.35% win probability. The correct score prediction is Atlético Madrid 3-1, supported by expected goals projections of 2.48 for the hosts and 1.05 for Alavés. Atlético have found the net in nine of their last ten home fixtures, while Alavés have conceded three or more goals in three of their last five away matches. The substantial xG gap underlines Atlético's attacking superiority and suggests goals at both ends remain likely despite the predicted comfortable home victory.