Atlético Madrid welcome Real Betis to the Metropolitano on Sunday evening, just three days after demolishing the same opponents 5-0 in the Copa del Rey quarter-finals. Diego Simeone's side sit third in LaLiga with 45 points, ten clear of fifth-placed Betis who arrive in the capital with fresh wounds and fading confidence. The hosts boast a perfect home league record of ten wins and one draw, making them overwhelming favorites against a Betis side that hasn't won in Madrid since October 2017.
Atlético's form shows a mixed bag across competitions. The emphatic midweek cup victory was sandwiched between a goalless draw at Levante and a shock 2-1 home defeat to Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League—a historic result that saw the Norwegian side become only the second team from their country to reach the knockout rounds since 1997. In LaLiga, however, Simeone's men remain formidable at home, with a 3-0 win over Mallorca demonstrating their domestic ruthlessness when playing at the Metropolitano.
Manuel Pellegrini's Real Betis limp into this fixture having lost three consecutive away matches. The 5-0 Copa del Rey humiliation followed defeats at PAOK (2-0) and Deportivo Alavés (2-1), leaving the Chilean manager with serious questions about his team's ability to compete on the road. Their last away victory came on January 17, a 2-0 win at Villarreal, but that feels like ancient history given recent events. Home form has kept Betis in European contention, with wins over Valencia and Feyenoord in the past fortnight proving they can still perform at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
The head-to-head record heavily favors Atlético, who have won 28 of these fixtures compared to just 13 for Betis. Real Betis did manage a 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in October 2024, but that remains their only win against Atlético in their last eight meetings. The psychological damage from Wednesday's cup thrashing cannot be understated—Betis must somehow find motivation to face the same opponents who just ended their domestic cup hopes in humiliating fashion.
My prediction is Home Win & Under 4.5 Goals at 1.75. Atlético's home league record of W10-D1-L0 provides the foundation, while Betis have conceded 10 goals in their last three away matches. The hosts' defensive solidity—just 17 goals conceded in 22 league games—suggests a controlled victory rather than another goalfest. The xG projection (2.66–0.97) supports a 3-1 finish.
