Struggling Auxerre welcome second-placed Paris Saint-Germain to the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps on Friday evening, January 23, 2026. The hosts sit 17th in the Ligue 1 table with just 12 points from 18 matches, fighting desperately for survival. PSG chase league leaders Lens by a single point and will expect nothing less than three points against relegation-threatened opposition.
Auxerre enter this fixture on a dismal run of form under manager Christophe Pélissier. They've lost four consecutive matches across all competitions and haven't scored a goal in 2026. On Saturday, they fell 1-0 at home to Lens, extending their wretched league form to just one win in 13 fixtures. Prior to that defeat, Auxerre lost 2-0 to Brest on January 4, fell 2-1 to Monaco in the Coupe de France on December 21, and were beaten 4-3 by Lille on December 14. Their only recent bright spot came on December 7 when they defeated Metz 3-1. Recent loan signing Romain Faivre from Bournemouth could feature more prominently after making his debut as a substitute, though Francisco Sierralta remains sidelined.
PSG enjoyed a dominant 3-0 victory over Lille on Friday to reclaim top spot temporarily, with Ousmane Dembélé scoring twice and Bradley Barcola adding a third. However, Luis Enrique's side suffered a damaging 2-1 defeat to Sporting CP in Lisbon on January 20, jeopardizing their Champions League qualification hopes. Earlier in January, PSG won the Trophée des Champions on penalties against Marseille after a 2-2 draw on January 8, beat Paris FC 2-1 on January 4, but were shocked 1-0 by the same opponents in the Coupe de France on January 12. The Parisians remain without Kang-In Lee due to a thigh injury, while João Neves faces a late fitness test and Matvey Safonov is unavailable with a hand problem.
PSG have utterly dominated this fixture historically, remaining unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Auxerre. The most recent encounter saw PSG cruise to a 2-0 victory on September 27, 2025, and they also won 3-1 on May 17, 2025. Auxerre managed a goalless draw at home on December 6, 2024, but PSG won 2-1 on May 21, 2023, and thrashed them 5-0 on November 13, 2022.
My model backs over 2.5 goals at 53/100 (1.53 decimal) with a 53.32% probability. The correct score prediction is Paris Saint-Germain 2-1, with expected goals of 1.22 for Auxerre and 1.60 for PSG. Auxerre's four-match losing streak includes three high-scoring affairs, while PSG have found the net in every recent meeting between these sides. The narrow xG gap suggests PSG will control proceedings without blowing away their hosts, but both teams should contribute to an entertaining contest that clears the 2.5-goal threshold.