Arsenal travel to the BayArena on Wednesday as heavy favourites to advance from this Champions League round of 16 first leg, with Mikel Arteta's side finishing top of the league phase with a perfect 8-0 record while Kasper Hjulmand's Leverkusen scraped through in 16th place. The Gunners are priced at 1.53 to win in Germany, a reflection of a squad that has looked sharp across multiple competitions and a host side that has been inconsistent all season.
Leverkusen arrive here having drawn three of their last five matches, including a goalless second leg against Olympiacos that was enough to advance 2-0 on aggregate. Their most recent outing on Saturday saw them surrender a lead at Freiburg, conceding an 86th-minute equaliser to draw 3-3 in a chaotic Bundesliga clash. Hjulmand's side have won just once in their last four outings, and their position in the Bundesliga — sixth place — underlines how far they have fallen from the title-winning side of 2023-24.
Arsenal head into this tie on the back of four wins from their last five, including a 4-1 thrashing of Tottenham and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea in the Premier League. On Saturday, Arteta rotated heavily for an FA Cup fifth-round trip to Mansfield, making nine changes, yet still came away 2-1 winners. The depth and momentum in this squad is clear — they have won five of their last six competitive fixtures and have not lost since a 2-2 draw at Wolverhampton in February.
Arsenal's head-to-head record against Leverkusen offers further encouragement. The clubs have met twice in Champions League competition, both in 2002, with Arsenal winning 4-1 at home and drawing 1-1 away — a 5-2 aggregate. Leverkusen have never beaten Arsenal in a competitive fixture, and that record stretches back over two decades.
My prediction is Arsenal to win at 1.53. Leverkusen's three draws in their last four games, combined with Arsenal's unbeaten European run and a head-to-head record that shows zero wins for the hosts across all competitive meetings, makes the away win the logical call. The xG projection (0.76–1.67) supports a 1-2 finish.