Bayer Leverkusen host relegation-threatened FC St. Pauli at the BayArena on Tuesday evening, with the hosts sitting 6th in the Bundesliga on 35 points while the visitors languish in 17th with just 14 points from 20 matches. Kasper Hjulmand's side enter as clear favorites after bouncing back into form, seeking to close the gap on the European spots. St. Pauli, under Alexander Blessin, face a daunting trip to a venue where they rarely escape unharmed.
Leverkusen's recent run reads W-W-W-L-L across five games, featuring a 3-1 triumph at Eintracht Frankfurt, a 3-0 demolition of Villarreal in the Champions League, and a 1-0 home win over Werder Bremen. Florian Wirtz remains the creative heartbeat for Hjulmand's attack, while Granit Xhaka dictates tempo from midfield. Goalkeeper Mark Flekken is sidelined until March with a knee ligament tear, and winger Nathan Tella nurses a foot injury. Edmond Tapsoba's return from a muscle problem provides a defensive boost ahead of this fixture.
St. Pauli arrive in poor shape with a D-D-L-L-L sequence that has dragged them into the drop zone. Their most recent outing saw a 2-1 defeat at Augsburg, extending a winless run that stretches back several weeks. Alexander Blessin's side managed respectable draws against RB Leipzig (1-1) and Hamburg (0-0), but leaking goals against mid-table teams has proven costly. Key midfielder Connor Metcalfe remains out with a knee injury, while defender Adam Dzwigala misses this match through suspension.
Leverkusen hold a commanding head-to-head record over St. Pauli, winning four of the last seven meetings against just one defeat. Earlier this season, they triumphed 2-1 at the Millerntor in September after a narrow 1-0 victory in April 2025. The December 2024 reverse fixture finished 2-0 to Leverkusen at the BayArena, highlighting St. Pauli's struggles against this opponent.
I'm backing Bayer Leverkusen at 1.50. Leverkusen have scored 7 goals across their last three home matches, while St. Pauli have managed just 4 goals in their last 5 away fixtures. Leverkusen's home xG average of 2.2 dwarfs St. Pauli's away output of 0.6. The xG projection (2.29–0.68) supports a 2-1 finish.