Bayer Leverkusen host Olympiacos at the BayArena on Tuesday evening, sitting 16th in the Champions League table with 12 points against Olympiacos' 11, in what is effectively a two-legged elimination tie. Kasper Hjulmand's side carry a 2-0 aggregate lead from the first leg in Piraeus, making them heavy favorites to advance. Olympiacos arrive needing to overturn that deficit away from home — a tall order for José Luis Mendilibar's squad against a team playing in front of their own supporters.
Leverkusen enter this tie having won the first leg convincingly, though their domestic rhythm has wobbled. They followed that result with a 1-0 away loss at Union Berlin in the Bundesliga last Friday — their first league defeat in three games. Before the European trip, Hjulmand's men hammered St. Pauli 4-0 at home, which had followed a 1-1 draw at Borussia M'gladbach and a 3-0 DFB Pokal win over St. Pauli. That is three wins from their last five across all competitions, and the 2-0 first-leg win showed what the Germans can do when fully switched on.
Olympiacos bounced back in the Super League with a 2-0 home win over GFS Panetolikos on Friday, but their European form tells a harder story. Before that, they drew 0-0 at Levadiakos and lost 1-0 at home to Panathinaikos, a run that leaves them without consistent scoring punch. Mendilibar's side head into this second leg with 10 goals in 8 Champions League matches — the same as Leverkusen — but a heavier defensive record of 14 conceded. Overturning two goals on the road while keeping a clean sheet is a significant ask.
These two clubs met previously in the 2002/03 UEFA Champions League group stage, with each side winning one home fixture in those encounters. Now, more than two decades later, this is the first knockout meeting between them, and the context couldn't be more different — Leverkusen are the established European outfit, while Olympiacos are making just their second-ever Champions League knockout appearance. The first leg already demonstrated the gap, with Leverkusen's 2-0 win at Karaiskakis Stadium setting a comfortable foundation to defend.
My prediction is a Leverkusen home win at 1.75. They hold a 2-0 advantage, have the superior European record across this two-legged tie, and face an Olympiacos side that has failed to score in three of their last five away Champions League matches. Leverkusen have also won 3 of 5 in their current form run and are 66.68% likely to win this game outright by the model. The xG projection (2.21–0.87) supports a 2-1 finish.