Third-placed Bayer Leverkusen welcome sixth-placed VfB Stuttgart to the BayArena on Saturday afternoon in a Bundesliga clash between two sides chasing European places. Kasper Hjulmand's hosts sit on 29 points after 15 games, three points above Sebastian Hoeneß's visitors who have 26 points. Both teams head into this fixture in solid form but will be without several key players due to injury and AFCON commitments.
Leverkusen have won three of their last five matches, losing only once in that period to Augsburg. Most recently they demolished RB Leipzig 3-1 away from home to bounce back from that setback. The narrow 2-0 victory over Köln and the crucial DFB-Pokal win at Dortmund showcase a team finding its rhythm under Hjulmand. However, the Danish manager will be forced to rotate with Eliesse Ben Seghir, Christian Kofane, Ibrahim Maza and Edmond Tapsoba all away at AFCON, while Álex Grimaldo battles muscular problems and Exequiel Palacios remains sidelined with a groin injury.
Stuttgart arrive in better recent form with three wins from their last five Bundesliga matches, though the 5-0 thrashing by Bayern München was a harsh reminder of the gap to the very top. The emphatic 4-0 victory at Werder Bremen and the dominant 4-1 Europa League win over Maccabi Tel Aviv demonstrate their attacking potency. Ermedin Demirović has returned to fitness after a prolonged absence, providing a timely boost for Hoeneß. Yet Stuttgart will be without Bilal El Khannouss at AFCON and face a lengthy injury list including Tiago Tomas, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Luca Jaquez and Ameen Al-Dakhil.
Recent encounters between these sides have consistently produced goals, with six of the last seven meetings seeing both teams score. Leverkusen remain unbeaten in their last 15 matches against Stuttgart, winning 10 of those contests. The most recent meeting in March 2025 ended 4-3 to Leverkusen in a thriller at the Mercedes-Benz Arena, while the previous season saw a narrow 3-2 victory for the hosts at the BayArena in the DFB-Pokal.
My model backs Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1/2 (1.50 decimal) with a 60.52% win probability. The correct score prediction is Leverkusen 2-1, reflecting expected goals of 1.92 for the hosts and 1.21 for the visitors. Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings have featured both teams scoring, and this attacking trend should continue despite the absences on both sides.
