Fifth-placed Beşiktaş return to Vodafone Park to face relegation-threatened Kayserispor on Monday afternoon, January 19, 2026. The hosts sit 14 points clear of their visitors, who occupy 16th place with just 15 points from 17 matches. Beşiktaş are unbeaten in their last five league games and have won four consecutive matches across all competitions, while Kayserispor have drawn three of their last five without tasting victory since before the December break.
Beşiktaş enter this fixture with renewed confidence after their dramatic 2-1 derby victory over Fenerbahçe on December 23 and a comprehensive 3-0 Turkish Cup win over Keçiörengücü on Thursday. Manager Sergen Yalçın has overseen a marked improvement since replacing Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in August, guiding the Black Eagles to 29 points from 17 matches. Their recent league form shows two wins and two draws from their last four, including a narrow 1-0 triumph over Rizespor on December 20 and entertaining draws with Trabzonspor (3-3) and Gaziantep (2-2). The hosts will be without midfielder Wilfred Ndidi, who sustained a hamstring injury during the Africa Cup of Nations, while Tammy Abraham remains unavailable. Cengiz Ünder and Mustafa Hekimoglu have recovered from injuries and are expected to feature.
Kayserispor arrive in Istanbul deep in relegation trouble, having managed just two wins all season. Their last league outing ended in a 1-1 stalemate with Konyaspor on Saturday, extending their winless run to nine consecutive Süper Lig matches. Manager Radomir Đalović, appointed in October after Markus Gisdol's dismissal, has steadied the ship defensively but goals remain scarce—the visitors average less than one per game. Their recent record shows three consecutive draws against Konyaspor, Alanyaspor (0-0), and Eyüpspor (1-1). Defensive injuries compound their problems, with Gideon Jung, Majid Hosseini, Yigit Celtik, and Lionel Carole all sidelined, while Burak Kapacak remains doubtful. Abdulsamet Burak is suspended.
The recent head-to-head record paints a bleak picture for the visitors. Beşiktaş have dominated this fixture, winning 16 of the last 22 meetings while Kayserispor have managed just two victories. Most recently, the Black Eagles crushed Kayserispor 4-0 away in September 2025, following a 2-0 home win and a 3-0 away victory in the previous season. In fact, Kayserispor have failed to score in five of their last six visits to Istanbul giants.
I predict Beşiktaş to win with over 2.5 goals at 3/4 (1.75 decimal odds). My model assigns this outcome a 60.04% probability, with a projected correct score of 3-1 to the hosts. The expected goals projection supports this confidence, with Beşiktaş forecast at 2.79 xG compared to Kayserispor's meager 0.86. Kayserispor have conceded in eight consecutive league matches, making them vulnerable to Beşiktaş's attacking intent on home soil.