Bolton Wanderers and Stockport County are set to face off in the League One play-off final at Wembley on 24 May 2026. With a spot in the Championship on the line, both sides are expected to name their strongest available lineups for this high-stakes Greater Manchester derby.
Bolton arrive at Wembley after a clinical semi-final display against Bradford City, winning 2-0 on aggregate. Steven Schumacher’s side faces a minor defensive concern, with Eoin Toal a doubt after being forced off in the second leg, while Johnny Kenny remains sidelined with a knee injury. Stockport, meanwhile, come into the final following a commanding 3-0 aggregate victory over Stevenage. David Challinor’s men have been in fine form and, having played at Wembley earlier this season in the Vertu Trophy final, they will be hoping that experience proves an advantage in their bid for promotion.
Key Match Insights & Statistics
- Play-off success: Bolton booked their place at Wembley after securing a 1-0 away win against Bradford City in their last match.
- Semi-final dominance: Stockport reached the final after a 2-0 victory over Stevenage, keeping back-to-back clean sheets in the process.
- Squad news: Johnny Kenny is confirmed out for the season for Bolton, while Eoin Toal remains a doubt for the final.
- Recent scoring: Bolton have been the first to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Corner count: Stockport have seen more than 10.5 corners in 5 of their last 6 outings.
- H2H trend: The last 4 meetings between these two sides have seen Bolton fail to keep a clean sheet.
Form on Bolton Wanderers: Can they handle the pressure at Wembley?
Bolton have navigated the play-offs with impressive defensive discipline, keeping consecutive clean sheets against Bradford. While the late winner from Xavier Simons in the semi-final second leg showcased their ability to strike when it matters, the potential absence of Eoin Toal could force a reshuffle in their backline. Schumacher has described the team as being "half way there," and with promotion on the line, the focus will be on maintaining the momentum that saw them through a tight semi-final tie.
Form on Stockport County: Will their experience prove decisive?
Stockport have been in ruthless form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches and showing no signs of slowing down. The partnership of Louie Barry and Kyle Wootton was instrumental in the semi-final against Stevenage, providing the spark needed to secure their spot at Wembley. Having already experienced a final at the national stadium this season, Challinor will be looking to channel that familiarity into a winning performance. There are no fresh injury concerns for the Hatters, allowing them to focus entirely on their tactical approach.
Advanced Statistical Analysis & xG Metrics
- Expected goals (xG): The projected match xG stands at 1.86 for Bolton Wanderers and 1.41 for Stockport County.
- BTTS intensity: In the last 15 matches, both teams have scored in 66.7% of Bolton’s games and 60.0% of Stockport’s fixtures.
- Over 1.5 goals: Matches involving these two sides have been high-scoring recently, with the Over 1.5 goals market hitting 73.3% for Bolton and 86.7% for Stockport in their last 15 matches.
- League season averages: Bolton average 1.49 goals scored per home match, while Stockport average 1.19 goals per away fixture.
Statistical trends and H2H
The history of this fixture suggests goals, particularly given that Bolton have not kept a clean sheet against Stockport in their last four encounters. Their most recent meeting in April 2026 ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw, highlighting the competitive nature of this Greater Manchester rivalry. While Stockport have enjoyed a decent run in recent H2H matches—remaining unbeaten in their last four against the Wanderers—the magnitude of a Wembley final often renders historical league form secondary to the intensity of the day.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
Given the attacking quality both managers have at their disposal and the high stakes of a promotion final, we expect an open and aggressive contest at Wembley. While Bolton’s defensive structure has been solid in the play-offs, Stockport’s recent scoring form suggests they will find a way through, and the H2H trend of recent high-scoring games supports this outlook. We are backing Both Teams To Score at 1.75407, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favour of Bolton Wanderers.
