Second-placed Borussia Dortmund host relegation-threatened FC St. Pauli at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026. Niko Kovac's side sit eight points behind Bayern Munich with 36 points from 17 matches, while Alexander Blessin's visitors languish in 17th place with just 12 points. Dortmund enter as overwhelming favorites, unbeaten in their last 10 Bundesliga outings and boasting the division's tightest home defense with six clean sheets in eight games.
Dortmund secured a commanding 3-0 victory over Werder Bremen on Tuesday. Nico Schlotterbeck, Marcel Sabitzer, and Serhou Guirassy found the net to extend their unbeaten run to six matches across all competitions. Guirassy ended a seven-game Bundesliga goal drought with his strike, a crucial boost for the team's top scorer who has netted 10 goals this season. Before that, Kovac's men fought back to draw 3-3 at Eintracht Frankfurt on January 9. Their December form was equally solid, claiming wins over Hoffenheim and Mönchengladbach while drawing with Freiburg. Gregor Kobel has been exceptional between the posts, anchoring a defense that has allowed just 15 goals all season.
St. Pauli's survival hopes took a hit on Wednesday when they fell 2-1 at Wolfsburg. That defeat ended a four-match unbeaten streak that had offered a glimmer of hope in their relegation battle. Blessin's side managed draws with Mainz and Köln in December, along with a 2-1 victory over Heidenheim on December 13. They also pulled off a shock 2-1 DFB-Pokal win at Mönchengladbach on December 2. However, mounting injuries have crippled their squad depth. Captain Jackson Irvine faces a possible second ankle operation, while Andréas Hountondji, Danel Sinani, Simon Spari, and David Nemeth all remain sidelined. Connor Metcalfe's knee problem makes his availability doubtful.
"We're playing at home and we want to give our fans a win," Kovac declared ahead of the fixture. "I aim to decide games like these as early on as possible." The Croatian emphasized his team's attacking philosophy: "We controlled the opponent, we controlled the ball and we created a lot of good chances. That's what I would like to see again." Blessin acknowledged the challenge his depleted squad faces. "We cannot be misled," he cautioned, addressing his team's injury crisis while noting that sleep has been difficult following recent setbacks.
The head-to-head record heavily favors Dortmund, who have won seven of nine encounters against St. Pauli. The most recent meeting ended 3-3 at St. Pauli's ground on August 23, 2025. Before that, Dortmund claimed comfortable victories, including a 2-0 away win on March 1, 2025, and a 2-1 home triumph on October 18, 2024. St. Pauli's sole victory came in the DFB-Pokal on January 18, 2022, when they stunned Dortmund 2-1. At Signal Iduna Park, the hosts have won their last three meetings by margins of at least two goals.
My model backs Borussia Dortmund to Win and Over 1.5 Goals at 1/2 (1.50 decimal) with a 63.46% probability. The correct score prediction is Dortmund 2-1, supported by expected goals of 2.25 for Dortmund and 0.50 for St. Pauli. Dortmund have scored multiple goals in five consecutive home matches, including four straight clean sheets before their draw with Frankfurt. That wide xG margin reflects both Dortmund's attacking prowess and St. Pauli's defensive fragility on the road, where they've collected just five points all season.