Brighton welcome Bournemouth to the American Express Stadium on Monday evening, January 19, 2026, with both teams looking to build momentum. The Seagulls sit 11th with 29 points, comfortably in mid-table, while the Cherries occupy 15th place on 26 points following an 11-game winless run that was only recently broken. Fabian Hurzeler's side are favorites after winning five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Bournemouth since February 2023, though both teams carry injury concerns into this fixture.
Brighton enter this match with mixed recent form but plenty of attacking quality intact. They defeated Burnley 2-0 on January 3, then held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw on January 7 before losing 2-1 to Manchester United in the FA Cup on Sunday. The return of midfielder Carlos Baleba from international duty and winger Yankuba Minteh from injury gives Hurzeler fresh options. Brighton will be without Mats Wieffer (toe), Adam Webster (knee), and Solly March (knee), while forward Stefanos Tzimas is out for the season with an ACL injury. Danny Welbeck continues to deliver despite being managed carefully, and the creative spark from Brajan Gruda and Kaoru Mitoma provides consistent threat going forward.
Bournemouth finally ended their winless streak with a dramatic 3-2 victory over Tottenham on January 7, with Antoine Semenyo scoring the late winner before his subsequent transfer to Manchester City. Prior to that, they lost 3-2 to Arsenal on January 3 and exited the FA Cup with a penalty shootout defeat to Newcastle on Saturday despite a thrilling 3-3 draw. Andoni Iraola faces a mounting injury crisis, particularly in attack, with Justin Kluivert sidelined for three months following knee surgery and Enes Unal expected to miss a couple of weeks with a groin issue. David Brooks is doubtful after twisting his ankle, though Ryan Christie could return from a knee problem. Evanilson and 19-year-old Junior Kroupi, who has netted seven Premier League goals this season, will be key to their hopes.
My model backs Over 2.5 Goals at 1/2 (1.50 decimal) with a 75.60% win probability. I predict a Brighton 2-1 victory, with expected goals projecting 2.23 for Brighton and 1.75 for Bournemouth. Brighton have scored in each of their last three matches, while Bournemouth found the net twice against both Arsenal and Tottenham in their most recent league fixtures. The 0.48 xG gap reflects Brighton's superior quality at home and Bournemouth's defensive fragility on the road, where they managed just one away win all season before facing Tottenham.