Celta Vigo host Lille at Estadio Abanca Balaídos on Thursday evening, January 22, 2026, in a crucial UEFA Europa League clash. The Spanish side sits 7th in La Liga with 32 points from 20 matches and currently occupies an unseeded play-off spot in the Europa League standings. Lille, positioned 4th in Ligue 1 with 32 points from 18 games, travel to Vigo desperate to reverse their recent slump and secure a stronger footing in the knockout phase race.
Celta Vigo enter this fixture in superb domestic form. They thrashed Rayo Vallecano 3-0 on Sunday, extending their unbeaten La Liga run to six matches. Under Claudio Giráldez, Los Celestes have won three consecutive league games, including victories over Sevilla and a stunning 4-1 demolition of Valencia on January 3. Their home record has been inconsistent with three wins, five draws, and three losses, but their away performances have been excellent. The Europa League campaign has been tougher—they beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 but lost to Stuttgart, Ludogorets, and Bologna, leaving them in the play-off zone.
Lille arrive in Spain struggling for momentum. Bruno Génésio's side lost 3-0 to Paris Saint-Germain on Friday in Ligue 1, their second consecutive league defeat after a 2-0 loss to Rennes on January 3. Between those domestic setbacks, they were knocked out of the Coupe de France by Lyon 2-1 on January 11. Their Europa League form has been mixed—they impressed with wins over Brann, Roma, and Dinamo Zagreb but suffered defeats to PAOK, Crvena zvezda, and Young Boys. With 10 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses in Ligue 1, Les Dogues have struggled to maintain consistency.
My model backs Celta Vigo or Draw at 2/5 (1.40 decimal) with a 74.52% probability. I predict a 2-1 home victory, with expected goals of 1.78 for Celta Vigo and 1.22 for Lille. Celta have won three of their last four home matches across all competitions, while Lille have lost three of their last four away fixtures. The xG gap reflects the hosts' recent attacking sharpness and Lille's defensive fragility on the road.
