CF Estrela Amadora welcomes Estoril Praia on Monday evening, January 19, 2026, in a vital Primeira Liga clash between two sides separated by just one point. The hosts sit 12th with 19 points from 17 matches, while the visitors occupy 9th with 20 points. Both teams arrive in contrasting form, with Estrela seeking to build momentum and Estoril looking to bounce back from a difficult outing.
Estrela have shown resilience under João Nuno, remaining unbeaten in their last three league outings. They secured a thrilling 3-2 victory at Famalicão on December 27, held Moreirense to a goalless draw on December 20, and most recently shared six goals in a 3-3 draw with Braga on Saturday. That entertaining stalemate showcased their attacking potential while exposing defensive vulnerabilities. Injuries remain a concern, with defender Ni sidelined with a broken arm and Gabriel Miranda Rodrigues still recovering from the same issue.
Estoril have endured a tougher run recently, suffering a 3-1 defeat to Benfica on Saturday after three consecutive wins. Manager Ian Cathro watched his side dominate mid-table opponents before Christmas, beating Moreirense 3-3, Braga 1-0, and Alverca 4-1 in late December. However, the trip to Benfica exposed the gap against elite opposition. The visitors face selection headaches with Ori Israel, Gonçalo Costa, and Xeka all sidelined through injury, while defenders Kevin Boma and Pedro Carvalho risk suspension.
Estoril hold a clear edge in recent encounters, winning three of the last five meetings while Estrela managed just one victory. Across those fixtures, Estoril outscored their rivals 11-5, demonstrating superior finishing in tight contests.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 7/10 (1.70 decimal) with a 71.43% win probability. The correct score prediction is CF Estrela Amadora 2-1, backed by expected goals of 2.02 for the hosts and 1.68 for the visitors. Both teams have found the net in each of their last three league matches, making this angle particularly compelling. The narrow xG gap suggests a competitive encounter with minimal separation between the sides.