Como host Bologna at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on Saturday looking to cement their surprising push for European football. Cesc Fàbregas's side sit sixth in Serie A with 33 points, seven clear of eighth-placed Bologna, who arrive in poor form after four consecutive defeats. Como enter as favorites despite Bologna's historical advantage in this fixture, with both teams nursing injury concerns that could shape the outcome.
Como have hit their stride with three consecutive victories, including impressive away wins at Lecce (3-0) and Pisa (3-0) before edging Udinese 1-0 at home. Those results have positioned them firmly in the European qualification race under Fàbregas, who is building a reputation in his second season at the helm. The hosts will be without forward Álvaro Morata and winger Assane Diao due to muscle injuries, while defender Jacobo Ramón serves a suspension. Despite these absences, Como's attacking momentum and defensive solidity—conceding just once in their last three matches—make them dangerous opponents on home soil.
Bologna's struggles have deepened over the past month, collecting zero points from their last four matches. Vincenzo Italiano's side suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Atalanta just two days ago, following losses to Inter (3-1) and Cremonese (3-1), plus a Supercoppa Italiana exit against Napoli (2-0). The visitors are dealing with their own injury crisis, with goalkeeper Lukasz Skorupski potentially returning but midfielder Federico Bernardeschi ruled out with a collarbone problem. Bologna's inability to keep clean sheets—conceding in all four recent defeats—has exposed defensive vulnerabilities that Como will look to exploit.
Fàbregas acknowledged the challenge ahead: "Bologna are a quality side with excellent players. Their recent results don't reflect their true level, and we must be prepared for their response." Italiano remained confident despite the run of defeats: "We've faced some difficult moments, but I believe in this group. We need to show character and get back to our principles at Como."
Bologna hold the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings, winning three of the last five encounters. The visitors secured 1-0 and 2-0 victories in their last two clashes, with one match ending 2-2. However, Como have shown considerable improvement since those defeats, particularly in defensive organization. Bologna have kept clean sheets in 67% of recent meetings between these sides, though their current defensive struggles suggest that trend may not continue.
I predict Como to edge this 1-0 with under 2.5 goals at odds of 73/100 (1.73 decimal). My model gives this outcome a 76.64% win probability, with expected goals projecting Como at 1.14 and Bologna at just 0.53. Bologna have failed to score in three of their last four matches, while Como have conceded only once across their three-game winning streak—a pattern that supports a tight, low-scoring contest.