Eduardo Coudet's Deportivo Alavés host Míchel's Girona FC at Mendizorrotza on Monday evening in a mid-table LaLiga clash with little room for error on either side. Alavés sit 14th with 26 points from 24 games, just eight points clear of the relegation zone, while Girona are two places and three points ahead in 12th. Neither club can afford to drift further down the table, making this a genuinely meaningful fixture despite its lack of headline glamour.
Coudet's side have won only once in their last four LaLiga outings, though that 1-2 victory at Espanyol on January 30 showed they can grind out results away from home. Back-to-back home defeats followed — a 0-2 loss to Getafe and a Copa del Rey exit to Real Sociedad — before a 1-1 draw at Sevilla on February 14 steadied things slightly. Alavés have now gone three league games without a win, and with a home record of 7 wins from 12 in LaLiga this season, Monday's match at Mendizorrotza represents a genuine opportunity to bounce back.
Girona arrive off the back of their biggest result of the campaign — a 2-1 home win over Barcelona on February 16. Míchel deployed a low defensive block to neutralise Flick's pressing system, which produced one of the more tactically impressive wins in LaLiga's recent rounds. That result snapped a sequence that included a draw at Sevilla and a loss at Real Oviedo in the Copa del Rey, though Girona's away form in the league remains inconsistent. They have averaged just 0.5 points per game on the road in LaLiga this season, making Vitoria a genuinely tricky assignment.
In 18 previous meetings between these clubs, Girona lead the all-time record with 8 wins to Alavés' 4, with 6 draws. Crucially, both league fixtures this season ended 1-0 to the away side — Girona won at Mendizorrotza in August, then Alavés won at Montilivi in November. BTTS has occurred in exactly 50% of their 18 encounters, and the historical average sits at 2.33 goals per game — numbers that point to a cagey, competitive contest rather than an open shootout.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 2.00. Alavés have scored in nine of their last 10 home LaLiga matches and conceded in 8 of those, giving them a 7W-5D-12L record that still carries a meaningful goal threat at home. Girona have found the net in four of their last five league games and — despite leaking 38 goals this season — just demonstrated against Barcelona that they can play to different tactical styles depending on the occasion. With 21 goals scored and 30 conceded across 24 games, Alavés are far from a blank sheet certainty. The model calculates a 52.22% probability for BTTS, which is a slight edge over the implied probability of 50% baked into those evens odds. The xG projection (Alavés 1.49 – Girona 1.06) supports a 1-1 finish.