Derby County host West Bromwich Albion at Pride Park on Friday evening, January 23, 2026, in a Championship clash that pits 12th against 19th. The Rams sit comfortably in mid-table with 38 points from 27 matches, while the Baggies find themselves just three points above the relegation zone after a disastrous recent run. John Eustace's side will be confident after back-to-back league wins, but Eric Ramsay's struggling West Brom arrive desperate for points.
Derby have shown resilience under Eustace, bouncing back from disappointment with crucial victories. They beat Preston 1-0 away on January 17 before edging Charlton 2-1 on Tuesday thanks to Bobby Clark's goal. Those wins followed a frustrating period that included a 3-1 FA Cup exit to Leeds and a 2-1 home loss to Wrexham. The Rams have won three of their last five league matches, building momentum in the middle of the table. Clark's return from injury has boosted the midfield, though Carlton Morris remains sidelined with an ankle problem until February.
West Brom are in freefall under new manager Ramsay, appointed on January 11 to halt their slide. His first two games brought humiliating defeats: a 3-2 loss to Middlesbrough and a crushing 5-0 home hammering by Norwich on Tuesday. That Norwich defeat was their heaviest home loss since 2021 and extended a wretched run to four defeats and one draw in their last five matches. The Baggies have lost faith in Ramsay's 3-4-3 system, with defensive frailties exposed repeatedly. Key players Tammer Bany, Jayson Molumby, and Alex Mowatt all remain injured until early February.
Derby have dominated this fixture historically, winning eight of the last 14 meetings while West Brom have managed just two victories. The most recent encounter saw Derby win 1-0 at The Hawthorns in September 2025, continuing their strong record against the Baggies.
My model backs Over 1.5 Goals at 11/25 (1.44 decimal) with a 78.30% likelihood. I predict a 2-1 Derby victory based on expected goals of 1.65 for the Rams and 1.15 for the Baggies. West Brom have conceded 13 goals in their last four matches, shipping at least two in each of those defeats. The projected xG gap of 0.50 reflects Derby's home advantage and West Brom's defensive collapse under their new manager.
