Everton sits 10th in the Premier League table with 32 points from 22 matches as they prepare to host Leeds United on Monday evening, January 26, 2026. The visitors are in a more precarious position at 16th with just 25 points, seven points adrift of the hosts but eight points clear of the relegation zone. David Moyes' side will look to build on a solid away record at home, while Daniel Farke's Leeds arrive with momentum from a dramatic late winner against Fulham.
Everton claimed a crucial 1-0 victory on Sunday at Aston Villa, with Thierno Barry netting after a defensive error to lift the Toffees to 10th place. That result continued an impressive away run under Moyes, whose team has matched Arsenal with ten away wins this season. However, home form remains a concern with just four wins at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The Toffees face a significant blow with Jack Grealish ruled out due to a stress fracture in his foot. Michael Keane serves the final match of his three-game suspension, while Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye have returned from AFCON duty and await fitness assessments. Jarrad Branthwaite and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall have resumed training but remain doubtful.
Leeds rescued all three points on Saturday with a 91st-minute winner from substitute Lukas Nmecha against Fulham, their second consecutive 1-0 victory. Farke's squad has suffered just one defeat in their last nine league fixtures, showing the resilience needed for survival. Brenden Aaronson has been in excellent form, opening the scoring in the 1-1 draw against Manchester United on January 4 before the Fulham triumph. The manager faces selection decisions with Gabriel Gudmundsson struggling with adductor problems ahead of the fixture. Anton Stach has returned to partial team training and could challenge for a midfield spot, while Jaka Bijol remains out with a hamstring injury expected to sideline him for several more weeks. Daniel James continues his recovery from a thigh problem.
"It's not for me to give the timescales - we've not got it yet from the doctors - but he has a stress fracture in his foot," Moyes confirmed regarding Grealish's injury. The Everton boss emphasized the team's resilience following the Villa win, praising the "magic moments" his side can create. Farke struck a measured tone on transfers, stating, "January difficult market, we are not in panic mode. Won't fall asleep. Have to be convinced of the quality and the character." After the Fulham victory, he described it as "the best win of the season," adding that "the strength of character of the team is there for all to see time and time again."
The head-to-head record between these sides shows balance, with both teams claiming eight wins each and 11 draws from 27 encounters since 1995. Recent meetings have been tight affairs, with Everton securing a 1-0 win at Elland Road in February 2023 followed by a 1-1 draw in August 2022. Prior to that, the Toffees claimed a commanding 3-0 victory in February 2022, while a 2-2 draw at Elland Road in August 2021 highlighted the competitive nature of this fixture.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 91/100 (1.91 decimal) with a 57.50% probability of success and projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome. Expected goals figures of 1.38 for Everton and 1.39 for Leeds point to a closely matched contest with little separating the sides. Both teams have found the net with regularity in recent weeks, and the tight xG margin reinforces confidence in goals at both ends.