FC Andorra host AD Ceuta this Sunday evening for the final round of the LaLiga 2 season. With both sides sitting comfortably in mid-table, the fixture serves as a chance to close out the campaign on a positive note. While the league standings suggest there is little to play for in terms of promotion or relegation, FC Andorra are aiming to break their professional-era points record in front of their own fans.
AD Ceuta arrive at the Estadi Nacional facing a significant personnel crisis. Following a difficult defeat to Málaga CF, José Juan Romero’s squad has been decimated by a combination of injuries and disciplinary issues. With the pressure of the league table removed, both managers are expected to focus on squad management, though the hosts appear much better placed to field a competitive side for this final outing.
Key Match Insights & Statistics
- Record chase: FC Andorra are just 1 point away from securing their highest-ever points total in their professional era.
- Squad crisis: AD Ceuta will be without the suspended trio of Marcos Fernández, Youness, and Bodiger for this trip.
- Injury woes: The visitors are also missing Redru and Matos due to injury, while Campaña remains unlikely to feature.
- Recent form: FC Andorra have won 4 of their last 6 matches in the league, despite a narrow loss to Deportivo de La Coruña last time out.
- Defensive struggles: AD Ceuta have conceded 4 goals in their last league outing and are struggling for consistency on the road.
- Long-term absence: FC Andorra continue to manage the long-term loss of Théo Le Normand following his ACL rupture.
- Match projection: The projected xG for this encounter is 1.69 for the hosts and 0.79 for the visitors.
FC Andorra form: Can they finish the season on a high at home?
Carles Manso’s side has enjoyed a productive run recently, winning four of their last six league fixtures. Their home form has been a particular highlight, with the team looking to cap off a solid campaign by building on their impressive 5-1 thrashing of Las Palmas earlier this month.
Although they slipped to a 2-1 defeat away at Deportivo de La Coruña last weekend, the performance was not without merit. Back on home soil, they will be eager to put that result behind them and capitalize on a depleted opposition to reach their points milestone.
AD Ceuta form: Will the visitors struggle with a threadbare squad?
It has been a testing end to the season for AD Ceuta, who have found wins hard to come by in recent weeks. They managed just one victory in their last six matches, a 2-1 away win against Sporting Gijón, before falling 4-1 at home to Málaga CF.
The primary concern for José Juan Romero is the sheer number of absences. With three key players suspended and several others sidelined through injury, the squad is stretched to its limit. Maintaining focus for a final-day dead-rubber is difficult enough, but doing so with such a short bench will test their resilience at the Estadi Nacional.
Advanced Statistical Analysis & xG Metrics
- Expected goals (xG): The projected match xG is 1.69 for FC Andorra and 0.79 for AD Ceuta.
- BTTS intensity: In the last 15 matches, both teams have scored in 53.3% of FC Andorra's games and 66.7% of AD Ceuta's fixtures.
- Goal production: FC Andorra have averaged 2.27 goals scored per match over their last 15 outings, compared to 1.20 for AD Ceuta.
- Defensive metrics: In the last 15 matches, FC Andorra have conceded an average of 1.13 goals per game, while AD Ceuta have allowed 1.93 per match.
- League season averages: FC Andorra average 13.89 shots per home match, significantly higher than AD Ceuta’s away average of 10.84.
Statistical trends and H2H
The two sides have limited history, with their only previous meeting this season occurring on 4 January 2026. In that encounter, AD Ceuta edged out a 2-1 victory, though much has changed for both squads since that winter fixture.
The current trends point toward a high-card count for both sides, with AD Ceuta having received more than 4.5 cards in each of their last six matches. While the historical H2H is sparse, the tactical disparity created by Ceuta's current injury and suspension list suggests the visitors will find it difficult to replicate their January success.
We Predict: Home Win
Given the stark difference in squad availability and the motivation for FC Andorra to set a new points record, a home victory is the most logical outcome. While the match is technically a dead-rubber, the home side’s desire to finish the season positively in front of their own supporters should be enough to overcome a severely weakened AD Ceuta side. We are backing a Home Win at 1.46382, with a likely scoreline of 2-1.
