FC Midtjylland host Nottingham Forest at MCH Arena in Herning on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Europa League knockout tie. The Danish side lead 1–0 from the first leg at the City Ground and have won both previous meetings. Forest must score at least once to stay in the tie, while Midtjylland can advance with a draw or win. The hosts are favourites to progress, with Forest also focused on Premier League survival.
Midtjylland lost 0–1 at home to FC Nordsjælland last Sunday in the Superliga championship round. A deflected effort deep in stoppage time decided the match despite Midtjylland having more possession and chances. That ended a long unbeaten run stretching back to late November, when they lost 1–2 at Sønderjyske in the league. Before last Sunday, they had won 1–0 at Forest in the first leg and drawn 1–1 at home to AGF in the Oddset Pokalen. Their last five show two wins, two draws and one defeat, with the Nordsjælland loss their first at home in months.
Forest drew 0–0 at home to Fulham last Sunday in the Premier League. They had a goal ruled out for offside and hit the crossbar, but could not score. The point moved them out of the relegation zone on goal difference. Under Vítor Pereira, Forest have not won in seven league games. Their last victory was 3–1 at home to Leeds on 6 February in the Premier League. Since then they have drawn with Manchester City and Fulham and lost to Brighton, Fenerbahçe and Midtjylland. They sit on 29 points with 10 league games left.
The sides have met twice in this season’s Europa League. Midtjylland won 3–2 at the City Ground in the group stage in October and 1–0 at home in the first leg last Thursday. Forest have never beaten Midtjylland, who have won four of nine European games against English clubs.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 2.00. Midtjylland can sit on their lead and have kept clean sheets in three of their last five. Forest have scored once in their last four and are struggling in front of goal. Both teams are cautious in knockout football, and the aggregate score favours a tight second leg. The xG projection (1.57–1.23) supports a 1–1 finish.