FC Noah host AZ Alkmaar on Thursday evening at Abovyan City Stadium in Yerevan, Armenia, in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League knockout tie. The Armenian side, managed by Sandro Perković, made history just by reaching this stage—becoming the first Armenian club to advance to the playoff round of a European competition. AZ, now under interim boss Leeroy Echteld after Maarten Martens was sacked in January, arrive as heavy favourites, but Noah's home record in this competition offers more than a sliver of hope.
FC Noah finished the Conference League league phase in 19th place with 8 points—two wins, two draws, and two losses—and three of those four wins came at home. Their last competitive match was a 2-0 defeat away to Dynamo Kyiv in December, a result that ended a difficult second half of the group stage. Since then, Noah have been on a winter break from domestic football and have gone winless in four friendly outings, including a chaotic 5-5 draw with Chinese side Yunnan Yukun. Perković's side has been conceding in every home game this season, and their overall form reads one win in their last eight competitive matches. The Armenian league does not resume until spring, leaving Noah short of competitive rhythm heading into this high-stakes two-legged tie.
AZ Alkmaar's campaign began poorly—just three points from their first three Conference League matches—but they recovered sharply, picking up seven points across the final three rounds without conceding a single goal, including wins over Shelbourne (2-0) and Drita (3-0). Echteld has steadied the ship since replacing Martens on January 18, going unbeaten in three league matches: a 2-1 win over Telstar, a 1-1 draw at home to Ajax, and a 2-1 away win at Excelsior last Saturday. AZ have scored in six straight away games, and in 19 road trips this season, they have managed only a single draw—every other result being either a win or a loss, pointing to a team that commits forward and rarely settles.
These two clubs have never previously met in any competition, making Thursday's clash a genuine unknown for both managers. That said, the broader context tells a clear story: AZ are a seasoned Eredivisie side with European pedigree, while Noah have achieved something remarkable simply by getting here. Noah's home atmosphere could be a factor in the first leg, and their 3-from-4 home Conference League record shows they are not easy to beat in Yerevan. Still, AZ carry a significant quality advantage on paper, and their defensive resilience in the final stretch of the league phase—three clean sheets in three—suggests they have the tools to control this tie from the outset.
My prediction is Double Chance X2 & Over 1.5 at 1.53. Noah's lack of competitive football since December is a significant obstacle, and AZ arrive with momentum behind a new interim manager who has gone unbeaten in three. With only one draw in 19 away fixtures this season, Echteld's side are built to take results on the road, and Noah have conceded in every home game during the Conference League phase. The xG projection (1.17–1.60) supports a 1-2 finish.
