FC Porto host VfB Stuttgart at Estádio do Dragão on Thursday evening for the second leg of their Europa League knockout tie. Porto lead 2–1 from the first leg in Stuttgart and are favourites to progress. Stuttgart must score at least once and win by two goals to go through without extra time. Porto are unbeaten in three European games against German sides, while Stuttgart have not won a home European knockout match since 2005.
Porto beat Moreirense 3–0 at home last Sunday in Liga Portugal. They led 2–0 at half-time and added a third late on, finishing with 58% possession and nine shots on goal to Moreirense’s two. Francesco Farioli’s side are 22-3-1 in the league and have won three of their last five matches. They won 2–1 at Stuttgart in the first leg, drew 2–2 at Benfica and lost 1–0 at Sporting in the Taça de Portugal. Porto have scored in each of their last five games and have kept two clean sheets in that run.
Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig 1–0 at home last Sunday in the Bundesliga. The only goal came in the 56th minute from a Leipzig goalkeeping error. Stuttgart had 57% possession and four shots on goal, and the win moved them level with third-placed Hoffenheim. Sebastian Hoeneß’s team have won two of their last five, including a 4–0 home win over Wolfsburg, but lost 1–2 at home to Porto in the first leg and 0–1 at home to Celtic. Stuttgart have scored in four of their last five matches and have conceded in four of those five.
This is the first meeting between the clubs in European competition. Porto won the first leg 2–1 at the MHPArena, leading 2–0 before Stuttgart pulled one back before half-time. Porto have won their last three European matches against German opposition. Stuttgart have not won any of their last eight home European knockout games since September 2005 and lost both legs to Benfica the last time they faced a Portuguese side in Europe.
My prediction is Both Teams To Score at 1.62. Stuttgart need to score to stay in the tie and have scored in four of their last five. Porto have conceded in three of their last five and let in one at Stuttgart. Both sides create chances: Porto average 1.45 xG at home and Stuttgart 1.26 away. The first leg finished 2–1 with goals for both teams. The xG projection (1.45–1.26) supports a 1–1 finish.