Fiorentina host Cagliari at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in a critical clash between two sides battling near the Serie A relegation zone. The home side sits 17th with 20 points after a vital 2-1 win at Bologna, while the visitors occupy 14th place with 22 points following their shock 1-0 triumph over Juventus. Paolo Vanoli's Viola are marginal favorites at 31/50 (1.62), though both teams desperately need points to climb away from the bottom three.
Fiorentina finally snapped a winless streak on Sunday with that important victory at Bologna, dedicating the result to late president Rocco Commisso. Rolando Mandragora and Roberto Piccoli scored the goals that lifted them out of last place. Before that they drew 1-1 with Milan on January 11 and 2-2 at Lazio on January 7. The Viola had endured a torrid run under Vanoli since his November appointment, unable to register a league win for months until Bologna. Mandragora has been productive in midfield while goalkeeper David De Gea continues to deliver crucial saves. The attacking threat of Albert Gudmundsson remains key, though injuries to Moise Kean, Edin Dzeko and Tariq Lamptey limit Vanoli's options.
Cagliari pulled off one of the season's biggest upsets on Saturday when Luca Mazzitelli's second-half header stunned Juventus at the Unipol Domus. It was their first win of 2026 and only their fifth all season. Before that they lost 1-0 at Milan on January 2 and drew 2-1 with Torino in late December. Manager Fabio Pisacane, promoted from the youth team in June, has struggled to find consistency with the Sardinians. Sebastiano Esposito leads the attack while midfielder Marco Palestra has impressed in recent weeks. The victory over Juventus provided a massive confidence boost, though they remain without Andrea Belotti, Mattia Felici and Michael Folorunsho through injury.
Fiorentina haven't lost to Cagliari in their last 10 meetings, winning six and drawing four. The most recent fixture finished 1-0 to the Viola in April 2025. Overall head-to-head record favors Fiorentina with 21 wins compared to Cagliari's 10 in 43 Serie A encounters.
My model backs Fiorentina at 31/50 with a 53.46% win probability and predicts a 2-1 scoreline. Expected goals of 1.87 for the home side against 1.13 for Cagliari reflects the attacking gap between the teams. The Viola's home advantage and superior recent scoring form against this opponent makes the narrow margin credible.